India, Pak may break ice but ties won't be warm

ISSUE BURNS: US Under Secy of State William Burns (L) with India's Foreign Secy SS Menon.

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London: India and Pakistan may be edging towards reopening talks, but are unlikely to pick up where they left off in a peace process which Washington hopes will ease tensions across the region as far as Afghanistan.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on Tuesday India was ready to meet Pakistan "more than half way", raising expectations of a resumption in talks broken off after last November's attack on Mumbai by Pakistani-based militants.

The first chance to break the ice would come if, as is likely, Singh attends a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Russia next week and meets President Asif Ali Zardari on the sidelines.

Both leaders, who have not met since Mumbai, could use this as "an opportunity to remove any misunderstandings and to pave the way for the resumption of the composite dialogue," said Wajid Shamsul Hasan, Pakistan's High Commissioner to London.

Washington is pushing for an easing of tensions between India and Pakistan so that Islamabad can focus on fighting Taliban militants on its western border with Afghanistan.

"We would support more dialogue between the two countries," US State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said on Tuesday as Under Secretary of State William Burns began a visit to India.

But expecting a breakthrough that might give Washington real breathing space in Afghanistan and Pakistan is a long shot.

Talking to people from both countries, positions appear to be further apart than they have been since at least 2003 before formal and informal talks led to what some say was a near breakthrough deal on Kashmir.

While India wants to focus on persuading Islamabad to take action against the Lashkar-e-Taiba militant group it blames for the Mumbai attack, Pakistan is looking for comprehensive talks, including on the festering Kashmir dispute.

"(Any) talks will be on the subject of Pakistan cooperating with India on Mumbai," said Indian strategic analyst B Raman.

"If America thinks we are going to start direct talks ... it's going to be very difficult." Pakistan wants all issues back on the table, including UN resolutions passed in 1948 giving Kashmiris the right to a plebiscite, which had been set aside by former President Pervez Musharraf in an effort to secure a peace deal with India.

"Musharraf went beyond his mandate. How can he set aside the UN?" said Hasan. "He went rather overboard in offering that to India. The Indians should have grabbed it, but they didn't."

BACK TO SCRATCH

According to Steve Coll, now president of the New America Foundation think-tank, India and Pakistan came near to a breakthrough on Kashmir in 2007 before Musharraf ran into political problems which eventually forced him to step down.