FTN: Does good governance pay in elections?

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As the counting day of the five state Assembly elections on December 8, 2008 came to a close, India was once again reminded of the enormous dignity of its democratic process.

As the staggered electoral process unfolded, Mumbai was attacked by a group of Pakistan trained terrorists. It seemed that the elections would be overshadowed by one of the worst terror strikes in India.

But people turned up not only in large numbers but also elected representatives not on the basis of big slogans but issues that affect them everyday - electricity, water, connectivity and development. They also voted for chief ministers who were seen as hardworking and had a clean image.

The General Elections are just a few months away and the Assembly elections have thrown up a mixed verdict. The Congress took three states, while Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won two.

Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit won a record third time in a row. Clearly the woman is the 'Man' of the match. This hat-trick victory for the Congress in Delhi will make BJP wonder if VK Malhotra should have indeed been the man to spearhead the campaign for the party.

In Madhya Pradesh, BJP's Shivraj Singh Chauhan retained the state with a comprehensive victory.

Rajasthan voters gave a royal shock to the erstwhile royal, Vasundhara Raje who conceded defeat to Congress' Ashok Gehlot. The Congress is just a few seats short of a clear majority, which can be made up through the support of independents, feel experts.

Chhattisgarh has a Raman effect. Chief Minister Raman Singh has succeeded in retaining the state for his party's rule. The ‘rice man’ has been voted back to power.

In Mizoram, Congress swept to power, snatching victory from the Mizo National Front after a 10-year hiatus in the state.

With the electorate making it clear that they voted for development, CNN-IBN's show Face The Nation debated: Does good governance and clean image pay in elections now?

Congress’ Abhishek Manu Singhvi, D Raja of the Communist Party of India and Rajiv Pratap Rudy of BJP joined Senior Editor Sagarika Ghose to discuss the Assembly election verdict.

Rajiv Pratap Rudy appreciated that Sheila Dikshit had put in a lot of hard work and the Delhi electorate had voted for her hard work.

The astounding performance of Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh respectively are in the same league, he felt.

But Rudy did not concede complete victory to Congress in Rajasthan. "Even in Rajasthan, we can say that the Congress does not have the full majority, it is still short of a full majority,” he said.

Sagarika reminded him that the BJP's slogans of India in peril, hype about the terror issue and the global economic slowdown worries did not win them the elections.

"What has worked in the elections is that good governance mattered. In Rajasthan too we have a big mandate but political mismanagement made us lose," Rudy opined.

Singhvi felt that the big slogans and big ticket rhetoric was the BJP's stand.

"In a championship, we have come out three to two. Delhi is an important win because it is a record for any woman chief minister who has won three times in a row. In Rajasthan too we have a de facto majority. Really speaking for the BJP, the cause to celebrate is only in Chhattisgarh," said Singhvi.

But Rudy was not ready to hand over Rajasthan to the Congress on a platter. "We admit defeat in Delhi. Congress is close to victory but has not really won," reminded Rudy.

If the electorate has shown that they want governance and are ready to vote for it, why is the Congress so hung up on star campaigning? Why is it that the star family has to go to the active campaigning and why is it not left to the good governors? Why isn't someone like Manmohan Singh allowed to campaign?

"Sonia and Rahul Gandhi have pan Indian faces. Obviously, the Indian voter is very smart and that is why they voted the Congress in three states, out of five. Both, the party's persona, image and overall history matters," argued Singhvi.

Rudy denied that a gender-biased BJP conspired against Raje and internal agendas disallowed her to repeat the Narendra Modi formula or emulate Raman Singh’s win in Chhattisgarh.

it was anything on these lines and said that Vasundhara lost because of political mismanagement of the campaign. He said that Raje lost because of political mismanagement of the campaign.

"We lost by 20 seats and Vasundhara managed whatever she did despite the presence of 60 rebel candidates. So we will have to give her credit for whatever she has achieved so far," said Rudy.

CPI’s the National Secretary D Raja said that his party will have to take serious steps to expand their presence in these states.

"The mixed verdict shows the maturity of the electorate. Good governance is a pertinent issue but more important are day to day issues like livelihood. The two messages are for BJP and Congress. People rejected the BJP's style of politics and the divisive agendas. Congress should also realise the electorate does not agree with the Congress taking them for granted all the time," Raja said.

Message of the Assembly election results

So what is the message of the electorate in terms of the forthcoming parliamentary elections? Are we seeing a new personality based politics? Is that the message, because chief ministerial personas have been in focus?

Sheila Dikshit, Raman Singh, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Ashok Gehlot and Vasundhara Raje are all personalities which affected the outcome of the Assembly elections.

Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader Shahid Siddiqui, senior BJP leader Balbir Punj, CNN-IBN’s Editor in Chief Rajdeep Sardesai and CNN-IBN’s National Affairs Editor Diptosh Majumdar joined in to discuss and debate.

"Humility and accessibility is a common thread that runs through all the winners of the day's verdict," said Diptosh Majumdar, highlighting that the electorate voted out an arrogant haughty leader, perhaps.

Punj refused to pin BJP's loss in Rajasthan to the personality of Raje.

"It was an organisational failure; the rebel candidates affected the party. But the Congress has not got a clear majority either," said Punj.

Sardesai opined that Raje's larger than life persona may have been her undoing.

"Narendra Modi became larger than life in Gujarat and won. But the moment Vasundhara Raje became larger than life in Rajasthan, her own people cut her to size and rebelled. That is because the old RSS guard did not like the idea that a woman becomes larger than life than much older male leaders in the party. Even Mayawati has not been able to take her larger than life persona so effectively outside of Uttar Pradesh," Sardesai pointed out.

Siddiqui disagreed on the point on Mayawati. "Personalities are not important to elections, it is what kind of team, ideologies and issues that candidate helps to project. Mayawati represents a silent social revolution that is slowly coming up in India," he said.

”Mayawati is doing what even Gandhiji was not able to do. For the first time the upper castes and lower castes, as well as the Muslims and Hindus are working together. Urban India is not able to understand but Indian hinterland is witnessing it," claimed Siddiqui.

So where does the buzz lie?

”Mayawati, to some extent has emerged as a key player but hers is certainly not the third pivot in Indian politics. She has emerged as a spoiler," said Majumdar.

Dikshit won despite the spoiler that BSP played.

Siddiqui said, not despite but because of the BSP could the Congress win in Delhi. The anti-incumbency votes of the Congress that would have gone to the BJP have come to the BSP, added Siddiqui.

Sardesai pointed out that neither the Congress nor the BJP could capitalise on the anti-incumbency factors if there were any in the rival run states.

The BJP could not take its traditional bastion of many years - Delhi. It also lost Rajasthan. The Congress has no clean sweep either. So what is it that it projects for the forthcoming parliamentary elections?

Will it be a fractured verdict at the national level?

Singhvi said that certain persons will always remain heads of certain movements. "People like Sonia Gandhi or Rahul Gandhi will always remain vote catchers," said Singhvi.

But he quickly added that their presence will have to be coupled with a very good candidate at the electorate level. Singhvi made an example of how an useless candidate backed by the Congress's star campaigners would still not work.

So has the BSP demonstrated its national clout in these elections?

"The 14 per cent votes in Delhi speak of a great future, especially in the parliamentary elections,” said Siddiqui.

Sagarika pointed out that no one quite knows what the BSP stands for. It seems to be on a negative wicket.

Majumdar stressed that this election has proven beyond doubt that Mayawati dose not have a magic wand. “She will have to grow as a mature leader slowly and over a period of time," said Majumdar.

When the voter is clearly saying that he does not want divisive politics, isn't the BSP still stuck in caste politics?

Sardesai pointed out that the BSP's plan seems clear. It wants to play a spoiler in as many electorates as possible and if they can even muster the strength of even 50 MPs in the kitty, they want to bargain for deputy prime ministership or prime ministership for Mayawati.

Siddiqui agreed on the point that the BSP was committed to fracturing in order to manufacture.

At this point senior Congress leader Salmaan Khurshid joined the discussion.

Khurshid said that his party went into the elections with many worries. The last six months had witnessed many unpleasant events like the encounter at Batla House in New Delhi, bomb blasts in many cities, price rise and now the Mumbai terror attack. But the victory is a reminder, Khurshid said, of the large work ahead as people have put their faith in Congress.

Punj warned against reading too much in the results of state elections and haphazardly applying the formula to parliamentary elections. He pointed out that parliamentary elections and state elections fought on totally different issues.

But the BJP had gone overboard on the terror issue. The BJP really believed that the terror issue was going to garner votes.

But there seems to be a clear disconnect between the electorate's feelings and what parties think. The electorate has shown that no single party has a monopoly on the terror issue.

Sardesai said that if we believe that the general elections are an aggregation of the state elections, then we will have to look at General Elections state by state. The likes of Nitish Kumar, Naveen Patnaik who are not flamboyant but have been delivering, will benefit.

Candidates who are not governing like Jayalalithaa (in Tamil Nadu) or Chandrababu Naidu (in Andhra Pradesh) could win on anti-incumbency if M Karunanidhi (Tamil Nadu Chief Minister) or YS Rajasekhar Reddy (Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister) are seen by their voters to be not doing well.

"Frankly, neither Mr Punj nor Mr Khurshid knows the verdict of the General Elections. They know that neither of their parties is going to be able to get 272 seats in the General Elections. In any calculations, the magic figure of 272 seems too far fetched. Where are the rest coming from?" asked Sardesai.

Punj said that the BJP has an idea of the uphill climb but has not resigned completely to the idea that they will stop short at 150.

Khurshid said that the next General Election may in fact bring the Samajwadi Party closer to Congress.

Sardesai rounded off the discussion by saying that come General Elections when good governance may become the deciding issue, the Congress may have to rethink about selection of its allies. For then, a good Chief Minister like Nitish Kumar may get more votes and seats than current ally Lalu Prasad.

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