Indo-Pak ties not a profit or loss statement: Rao

Karan Thapar: Hello and welcome to Devil's Advocate. Where do relationships with Pakistan stand and has the Nuclear Supplier Group betrayed India? Those are the two critical issues I shall discuss today with the Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao.

Foreign Secretary let's start with Pakistan. There is a view that the resumption of dialogue with Pakistan is of more interest to Islamabad than Delhi. For one it has lessened the pressure on Pakistan in terms of terror, it has allowed that country to raise Kashmir, it raised the domestic profile of the government and it has helped internationally. What has this process done for India?

Nirupama Rao: Well, the process is of benefit to both countries. I don't think you can seek to create a profit or loss statement when it comes to relations between India and Pakistan in the current context. The fact is that the commitment to engagement is based on our shared geography as Prime Minister said the other day in his conversation with the newspapers editors. And given the shared geography and the fact that there are enormous complexities in the relationship and there are problems to be resolved, it makes sense to engage, it makes sense to resume the dialogue, it makes sense to discuss the complex issues.

Karan Thapar: In other words you are saying talking to Pakistan is a necessity even if there aren't immediate gain from the talks from India's stand?

Nirupama Rao: I definitely believe so that this is a process that is going to take time. I think it would be impractical and unrealistic to expect dramatic breakthroughs in just one round of talk or two rounds of talks.

Karan Thapar: Let me put to you what critics of this talk process say, they say the 26/11 trial is stalled in Rawalpindi, the judge has been changed four times, you have been repeatedly asking for voice samples, you haven't got them and you have no idea when you'll get them and most important of all, even the permission given by the Home Secretary in March for an investigative commission, it hasn't been taken by Pakistan. So all you got is verbal assurances but nothing substantial and concrete.

Nirupama Rao: You know the point to ponder over in this context is the approach you take in these matters. There is no doubt that on 26/11 trial we need satisfactory closure as I mentioned in Islamabad the other day. We need progress in the trial, we need concrete results and there is no doubt about that and those concerns have been adequately and more than adequately communicated to the Pakistanis even in this round. Let me tell you.

Karan Thapar: But you aren't getting any progress. Your former home secretary GK Pillai just a few days ago said that the process hasn't moved an inch.

Nirupama Rao: Well it depends on how you look at it. From one angle certainly it hasn't moved an inch and I'm not denying that there has been a very glacier pace to this whole process as far as the 26/11 trials are concerned. But let me tell you what kind of a feedback we got in this round from the Pakistanis and they spoke of the need to discuss all the serious and substantive issues between the two countries and that terrorism was at the forefront of it.

Karan Thapar: In other words you see a change in Pakistan's attitude?

Nirupama Rao: I think the prism through which they see this issue has definitely been altered.

Karan Thapar: And you see that as a positive outcome?

Nirupama Rao: I see that as an outcome that we must take note of, we must take cognizance of.

Karan Thapar: In other words it is a window of opportunity that we have to take advantage of?

Nirupama Rao: I think when they speak of the fact that the non state element in this relationship need to be tackled, that we must look at safe havens and sanctuaries, that we must look at fake currency, that we must look at all the aspects that are concerned with the business of terror. I think that is a concrete development.

Karan Thapar: You are putting a positive gloss on what you heard from Islamabad when you visited recently. But let me put this to you, in May and June there was enormous evidence brought out in David Headley at the Tawahhur Rana trial in America, which suggested conclusively ISI's involvement in 26/11 attacks. He provided proof of ISI funding, of ISI training, of ISI instruction. He even named Major Iqbal as his ISI handler. Home Minister Chidambaram said that this was the prima facie proof of ISI involvement. But Rehman Malik, Pakistan's Minister of Interior Affairs, has gone on record to dismiss what Headley said, he said that man is not trustworthy. So, what you are getting is not positive outcome, you are not getting positive responses, you are getting denial.

Nirupama Rao: Let me say that, that we shouldn't read literal outcomes into all this. The fact is we are engaging each other, both India and Pakistan on all issues including 26/11 trial. When I met my counterpart, Salman Bashir in Islamabad few days ago, these are the very issues that I raised with him.

Karan Thapar: You raised these issues and what did he said?

Nirupama Rao: I did raised that and I said we need to get satisfactory answers on these linkages. Let me tell you the aim here and it's not just the aim of India, it applies to whole global community, the strategic link between the Pakistani state and the militancy and terror needs to be broken.

Karan Thapar: But to begin with, does Salman Bashir accept that there is a strategic link?

Nirupama Rao: Well he is not going to say that in so many words to me, I think it would be unrealistic for me to accept that the Foreign Secretary of Pakistan would say that. Let me say that that fact that we are discussing, the threat, the scourge, the evil of terrorism and the fact that it has ramifications that extend into the entire region, I think it is a development we must take note of. I'm not being pollyanna, I'm not trying to sound over optimistic about it.

Karan Thapar: You sound very generous towards the Pakistanis.

Nirupama Rao: I think that is your interpretation Karan, that is not my interpretation. I don't believe that is the way diplomatic negotiations are transacted. I think we have to be realistic; we have to understand the difficulties.

Karan Thapar: When you raised Headley, did Salman Bashir accept that Headley has provided proof of ISI involvement? His former Foreign Secretary Shaharyar Khan was willing to accept it when he came to India. Does the present incumbent accept what Headley has said is trust worthy or does he take Rehman Malik's line of dismissive?

Nirupama Rao: First of all I think you are approaching this from an angle as if to suggest that only focus of my discussion with Salman Bashir last week in Islamabad was 26/11 trial. There is Home Secretary, Interior Secretary Process underway. They have had good rounds of talk; there have been outcomes of those talks. There is follow up actually in process at the moment. So, I did elude to all this in my discussions but we also discussed peace and security, we also discussed issue of Kashmir which has only formed a part of the dialogue let me tell you. Somehow the impression has been created that we have given away the store by discussing Kashmir. So, I completely refute that allegation.

Karan Thapar: I totally accept that and I'm happy that you are talking so fully and openly about your discussion that you had with Salman Bashir. Let me put to you what critics might say, they say on hand there is David Headley revealing in detail the nature of the ISI involvement in 26/11 and on the other hand they say Pakistan's own investigation makes no mentions whatsoever of any connection with Lashkar and intelligence agencies and officers. Critical people like Sajid Mir and Muzammar Bhatt, the chief Lashkar militant don't even feature in the chargesheet and Pakistan has taken no steps to pursue the 20 fugitive wanted for their role as the crew of the boat that sailed to Mumbai. So Pakistan is verbally very assuring but when you look at the concrete steps that they are failing to take, the gap gets wider and wider.

Nirupama Rao: I have said it and I say it again that we do need closure on these issues. These are the issues of paramount concern to India and very legitimately so and I think Pakistan is fully aware of this and the rounds of talks that we had in recent months and I refer especially to the Home Secretary level talks, have served the purpose of communicating and articulating these concerns very graphically to the Pakistanis and the fact that we have sustained the dialogue on these issues. I agree with you that concrete results are very far of. We haven't seen any progress on 26/11 trial and it is point of great concern to us. So let me ask you a question, does it mean that dialogue is not an option we should pursue with Pakistan?

Karan Thapar: You know that is very interesting that you should bring that very question up because the point I was going to make, as I hear you and I suspect as the audience hear you, they will say to themselves as what the foreign Secretary is really saying is that the previous position that India had taken after 2008 and 26/11, that there can be no dialogue with Pakistan until there is substantive delivery on 26/11 and terror, that position has been changed. Even if the government doesn't admit it up front the government has now decided that it can no longer refuse talks, it needs to engage with Pakistan in the hope that engagement will produce the result that earlier refusal to talk didn't produce. There has been a change that has taken place. Isn't it?

Nirupama Rao: I think you have to look at policy making in a dynamic way. I don't think you are making a policy in a laboratory. You take into account the surrounding environment, you take into account a success approach or not. Did that approach yield too many dividends? Well you have to make your own assessment of that. I think the decision to re-engage with Pakistan and to talk about the issues that divide us, that created a gulf between us, to reduce the trust deficit as the two Prime Ministers said, I think it is a very realistic approach in dealing problems with Pakistan

Karan Thapar: Absolutely and it take on board the fact that the world changes as the time moves on and the policy needs to move on as well.

Nirupama Rao: Especially for us in South Asia.

Karan Thapar: Foreign Secretary lets come to the recent decision taken by the Nuclear Supplies Group not to sell enrichment and reproducing technologies to countries that haven't signed the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty, Would you accept that in effect this has nullified the clean waiver India got in 2008?

Nirupama Rao: I think they're very clear about this development. There are two points that I would like to make. First of all, we've consistently underlined, and this is a fact well known to our partners, that the sanctity of the clean exemption that India was granted in the September 2008 NSG decision must be maintained, must be upheld.

Karan Thapar: That's your position. But they don't seem to share it.

Nirupama Rao: I am coming to it. The second point is that full bilateral civil nuclear cooperation, commitments, that have been entered into between India and its various partners must be taken forward. And, both these points, let me mention, have been recognised by our chief partners in this regard, by the United States, by France, by Russia.

Karan Thapar: I'll come to United States, France and Russia in a minutes time. Lets first pick up on your point that the sanctity of agreements must be retained and preserved. That's your position but the NSG has introduced a new paragraph 6 in its guidelines which stipulates specific criteria that recipient countries must meet before any NSG country can sell ENR technology. And, the first criteria is, membership with the NPT. That criterion alone disqualifies India.

Nirupama Rao: First of all let me say that these guidelines have not been published in open text, as yet. We need to study that more fully and we will need to draw our conclusions from that. I am not saying that these developments are welcome. I am not in any way suggesting, that this is something that we have not known and we have not fought all this time. We knew that there was a process underway.

Karan Thapar: And you tried very hard to prevent and you failed?

Nirupama Rao: No, it's not a question of failure. You have to look at this as a dynamic process. Let me say one thing very clearly, and I would repeat myself on this, that the international nuclear order will change in India's favour and I am willing to bet my money on that.

Karan Thapar: That's a hope? At the moment it is looks like its going against India's favour. Let me put it like this, when India got the clean waiver in 2008, it did so on the basis of certain specific commitments it made. It agreed to put several of its nuclear facilities under international safeguard, it publicly endorsed a whole set of non proliferation conditions, it agreed to pass a Nuclear Liability law. India fulfilled all its commitments but now almost three years later the NSG is wavering, its diluting its waiver. Don't you feel let down?

Nirupama Rao: Karan, nothing is set in stone here. I think you are jumping to very hasty conclusions. As I said this is a dynamic process. We have to study these guidelines there's no doubt about it. But let's look at the statements that have come out of the United States, France and Russia - post the NSG discussion.

Karan Thapar: Before you come to USA, France and Russia. Let me quote you Anil Kakodkar who was the chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, when the waiver was obtained. He's gone on record to say 'this is a betrayal'.

Nirupama Rao: Well I wouldn't use similar terminology. As a..

Karan Thapar: Do you feel let down?

Nirupama Rao: As a professional engaged in this process, I think the latest NSG decision is not the end of the road. It's not set in stone.

Karan Thapar: How can you say that? Since you're not a member of the NSG, how can you say that?

Nirupama Rao: No, I definitely am basing that on knowledge of the situation as it exists. There is a balance of interests, there's a balance of commitments, and there is mutual reciprocity involved. There are leverages that we can exert from our side also. I am not going to go into detail.

Karan Thapar: But what are the leverages that you have?

Nirupama Rao: Well, the whole issue of full bilateral civil nuclear cooperation. The fact that India has the potential to develop sixty thousand megawatts of nuclear, and electricity from nuclear energy by 2030. So this is a dynamic process. We have an expanding nuclear industry. This is a great attraction to the rest of the world.

Karan Thapar: Are you saying that India will not buy reactors from any country that refuses to sell ENR technology as well. Is that the leverage you have in mind?

Nirupama Rao: We will defend our interests to the hilt.

Karan Thapar: Let me put it like this, you have great hope that countries like France and Russia will continue to sell ENR technology to India. The truth is that at the moment you don't have agreements with either, that permit the sale of ENR technology. Both countries have committed themselves to reaching a further agreement, that further agreement has not been reached in either case. Now, with the NSG changing its guidelines, there's a real danger that France and Russia will never conclude an agreement that permits the sale of ENR.

Nirupama Rao: Look I am not going to draw a dooms day scenario from this. As I said this is a dynamic process, nothing is set in stone, this is not the end of the road and as I said there is a balance of interest and commitments involved, there are questions of reciprocity.

Karan Thapar: Is this just hope and brave talk?

Nirupama Rao: No certainly it isn't.

Karan Thapar: You sure it's not just diplomatic blaster?

Nirupama Rao: No, I don't believe in blaster. I believe in being diplomatic, definitely. But this is neither diplomatic blaster nor non recognition of reality.

Karan Thapar: Let me tell you what people believe is your real hope. The Hindu says that in 2009 when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh went to Paris, President Sarkozy made a personal pledge that Paris would not be bound by any decision of the G8 or the NSG not to sell ENR technology to India. Does that pledge still hold today?

Nirupama Rao I think pledges deserve to be honoured and everything we're hearing, from the French, from the Americans, from the Russians, would suggest that their commitment to full bilateral civil nuclear co-operation and keeping in mind, the clean exemption that was given to us in September 2008, will be taken forward.

Karan Thapar:But that's the past. You say pledges should be honoured. Have you had confirmation by Paris that they stand by the pledge?

Nirupama Rao: I have confirmations from both the United States and from France, and also from Russia that they stand by the commitments made to India in this regard, and that there is no dilution of these commitments.

Karan Thapar: But the problem is that the commitments that they made in their bilateral agreements do not include sale of ENR technologies. That is something that both countries have said that they will negotiate later and the problem is that in Paris' case you have a pledge, we don't know whether it's reconfirmed or not, in Russia's case, Russia has actually passed something called decree 992 which they re-endorsed in December 2010, which does not permit sale of ENR to any country which is not an NPG signatory. So in Russia's case, there is an argument that Russia is being duplicitous with us.

Nirupama RaoI don't believe that. Russia is a long time strategic partner and I think the strategic interest in this relationship, the fact that this relationship is rock solid will prevail.

Karan Thapar: You're confident of that?

Nirupama Rao: I am very confident and I'm very clear about the strength that we have. I think people seem to think that this is the end of the road, it's not the end of the road. I think we have a tendency to proclaim defeat at every such turn and I think that is not the way. In situations such as this, which are dynamic situations, nothing is set in stone. Interests prevail, reciprocities prevail, commitments prevail.

Karan Thapar: And you're also saying that India's strength and leverage will prevail.

Nirupama Rao: Absolutely.

Karan Thapar: Foreign Secretary, a pleasure talking to you.

Nirupama Rao: Thank You.

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