Indo-US deal: still a tightrope walk at NSG

Vienna: The Indo-US nuclear deal observers say that the deal will go through at the Nuclear Suppliers Group meeting in Vienna this Thursday.

India's pointmen on the nuclear deal will be briefing three key members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group in Vienna on Wednesday.

The three key members are known as the Troika. They are Germany, currently head of the NSG, South Africa and Hungary.

The hope is that the Wednesday’s briefing will set the stage for a clean and unconditional exemption from NSG restrictions on nuclear trade.

Western experts believe India will be successful.

Nuclear expert, King's College, London, James Acton said, "India is very likely to get the exemption at the NSG that it is seeking. There is some skepticism from New Zealand, Ireland and the Netherlands.”

“They are all skeptical and worried about the implications of the deal. But I think when push comes to shove, they are very unlikely to vote against the deal."

University of London professor, Dr. Lawrence Saez said, "I'm fairly optimistic. About six months ago, I would have been very pessimistic. At least within the EU, there was opposition from some of the member states”.

“ Now the opposition is very limited. I think that the circumstances are quite favourable for the deal to go through. It is mostly a matter of implementation and whether this goes through before Bush leaves office. It is mostly a technical issue, but I'm very optimistic this will happen," he added.

However, there is some expectation of opposition.

International Institute for Strategic Studies, Mark Fitzpatrick said, “The NSG would be simply seeking additional information, delaying it. But delaying it would push it past getting action in the US Congress which make the deal impossible to consummate before the end of the Bush administration."

While many are optimistic about the safe passage of the deal in the NSG meet, the deal is still being resisted actively by countries such as Austria, Ireland and Switzerland.

These countries are not really players in the nuclear business, but they do have obstructive significance because of the NSG convention on a consensus.

Despite some cautious optimism, the campaign to get these on board is going right down to the line.

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