Post-poll survey: Cong up, BJP catching up

NUMBERS DON'T ADD UP: CNN-IBN projections show Congress+ has a slight edge over BJP+.

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New Delhi: A post-poll analysis conducted by CNN-IBN in association with the Centre for Study of Developing Societies shows the Congress-led UPA is projected to have a slight edge over NDA and others in the Lok Sabha elections.

According to the study, Congress+ is likely to get anywhere between 185 and 205 seats, BJP+ is projected to get a close figure of anywhere between 165 and 185 seats.

The Third Front – likely to play the kingmakers if it doesn’t disintegrate – is likely to get 110 to 130 seats and the Fourth Front likely to get 25 to 35 seats. Others could get between 20 and 30 seats

THE BIG PROJECTION

• Cong+: 185 to 205 seats

• BJP+: 165 to 185 seats

• Third Front: 110 to 130 seats

• Fourth Front: 25 to 35 seats

• Others: 20 to 30 seats

UPA’S ROUTES TO POWER

OPTION 1:

• Cong and its allies get close to 200 seats

• RJD, LJP and SP add about 40 seats

• The Left with 35 seats gives outside support

• UPA+ crosses majority mark

• Likelihood: Possible

OPTION 2:

• UPA gets 180 to 200 seats

• SP gets 25 seats

• Nitish Kumar & Jayalalithaa switch sides

• Smaller parties like BJD, PMK also join in

• UPA+ crosses majority mark

• Verdict: Possible

NDA’s ROUTES TO POWER

OPTION 1:

• NDA gets close to 200 seats

• Ex-NDA partners AIADMK & TDP return with about 50 seats

• Mayawati supports with about 35 MPs

• NDA crosses majority mark

• Likelihood: Possible

THIRD FRONT’S ROUTE TO POWER

OPTION 1:

• Third Front gets about 140 seats

• Gets Fourth Front support

• Gets other UPA allies to support it

• Or gets UPA to lend outside support

• Likelihood: Unlikely

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