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Dec 04, 2012 at 02:16pm IST

UPA insists it has the numbers, FDI battle set to start in Lok Sabha

New Delhi: 11:45 am: Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kamal Nath says he is confident that the motion moved by BJP in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha will be rejected. "I am urging all parties not to subscribe to the politics of BJP," he said.

10:47 am: The Trinamool Congresas will vote against FDI in retail in Parliament, said TMC leader Kalyan Banerjee. Meanwhile, the Samajwadi Party has hinted at bailing out the government even as it has not revealed its stand yet. The party may either vote in favour of the government or abstain from voting.

ALSO SEE FDI in retail: The numbers in Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha

It is a huge day for Parliament as the Lok Sabha is set to enter into a debate on Tuesday on FDI in multi-brand retail. The debate will be carried out under rule 184, which allows voting. The Congress is putting up a brave front saying it's confident that it has the numbers and can pull through this.

UPA insists it has the numbers on FDI

Meanwhile, the Samajwadi Party party is expected to either vote in favour of the government or abstain from voting.

Though speculation hints at Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati supporting the government, both she and Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav have said that their parties will take a call on the floor of the House. Both the parties have kept the UPA government on the edge ahead of the crucial debate.

"Our party will decide our stand on FDI in retail through a vote in Parliament after analysing its benefits for the nation. On this issue, our party will decide whether we stand with those who empower communal forces in the nation," Mayawati said on Monday.

Mayawati's guessing game is giving anxious moments to the government, particularly in the Rajya Sabha, where it needs both SP and BSP's helping hand. Sources say that Mayawati could help the Congress out, though for a price. She wants the quota bill to be taken up first in Rajya Sabha.

SP, however, opposes the quota bill and there is a possibility of a repeat of Lokpal scenes in the Rajya Sabha where a debate may not be allowed. This could suit the Congress where it could avoid the embarrassment of a defeat. Mulayam also said, "I am opposed to FDI. I will decide in the Lok Sabha."

Government's floor managers have been working overtime. They are hoping for a last minute abstention from SP and BSP. But if the quota bill is taken up, the possibility of the SP turning its back is high.

In case of a defeat on FDI, the government doesn't fall but it will be a huge embarrassment because the government has hinged FDI as a part of its big bang reforms package. But the real challenge for the government could be in defeating the motions moved by the Left seeking cancellation of FDI enabling FEMA amendments moved by the government on Friday.

While the government wants to delink the two and insists that it needs to win in only one. The Opposition, particularly the Left wants to corner the government by linking the two. While the Lok Sabha seems fine for the government, it's important to win by a huge margin because one it will claim unanimity on FDI and second will be used to project a blow to a united opposition on the issue.

The numbers in the Lok Sabha

Vote on FDI

For

Congress(206) + DMK(18) + OTH(30) + RJD(4) + JDS(3) = 261

Against

NDA(152) + LEFT(24)+ TMC(19) = 195

Abstain

SP(22) + BSP(21) = 43

After the abstentions, the total strength comes down to 501 and the half-way mark comes down to 251

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