New Delhi: The ruling Congress-Nationalist Congress Party combine in Maharashtra is heading for trouble with the Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena alliance making a strong comeback.
If Lok Sabha elections are held in January 2014, the Congress-NCP is likely to face a severe setback winning just 12-20 seats against 25-33 for the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance. Other parties are expected to get 1-5 seats as per the seat projections provided by Chennai Mathematical Institute's Director Professor Rajeeva Karandikar.
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According to Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance along with the Republican Party of India (Athvale) is likely to get 44 per cent votes as against 35 per cent for the Congress-NCP combine.
The Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) led by Raj Thackeray is not expected to do well. It is projected to get just 2 per cent votes while 5 per cent respondents back the AAP, 4 per cent back the BSP and 10 per cent are favouring others.
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Break up of estimated party vote shares
The BJP is the biggest gainer with 9 per cent more votes and is expected to get 36 per cent votes on its own. Clearly Narendra Modi is making a big difference in the state. BJP's ally Shiv Sena is losing 2 per cent votes and is expected to get 6 per cent votes. RPI (A) is likely to get 2 per cent votes.
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The Congress is losing 8 per cent votes. It is now likely to get 29 per cent votes. There will be no change in the vote share of NCP which stays at 6 per cent. The BSP and MNS are also likely to lose their vote share.
One more worrying factor for the ruling combine is decreasing support for the Congress-NCP combine among its traditional supporters as 22 per cent feel that they should contest in the Lok Sabha poll separately.
Only 28 per cent respondents want the MNS to fight election in an alliance while 33 per cent feel that it should contest on its own. Most of the people who feel that the MNS should join an alliance feel that it should join BJP-SS-RIP (A) alliance. Only 8 per cent feel that it should go with the Congress-NCP.
Not much support for Vidarbha state demand
Four out of 10 respondents have answered that they have not heard of the demand for a separate state of Vidarbha. Just 58 per cent have answered that they are aware of such a demand. Among the people who have heard of the demand, 30 per cent support it and 46 per cent oppose it.
One more interesting aspect of the survey is the Adarsh Housing Society scam. More than half of the respondents have answered that they have not heard of the scam. Nearly two thirds of those who are aware of the scam feel that state government's earlier decision to reject the probe commission's report was wrong. It includes many traditional supporters of the Congress-NCP.
Farmers are unhappy
Most people including the farmers are unhappy with the way the state government is handling farmers' issues. The dissatisfaction is high in Western Maharashtra, which is the sugar bowl.
Overall 46 per cent are unhappy with the way the government handled the farmers' issues while 48 per cent respondents have answered that they are unhappy with the present government.
However, 50 per cent respondents feel that Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan is good. But 57 per cent respondents have answered that they don't want to give another chance to the present government.
Like many other states, the UPA at the Centre is unpopular even in Maharashtra, 53 per cent feel that it is not a good government, 41 per cent respondents are unhappy with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and 59 per cent respondents have answered that the UPA at the Centre should not get another chance.
Modi leads PM race
Like most states in India, even in Maharashtra, Narendra Modi leads the PM race with 40 per cent of the respondents backing him. Rahul Gandhi has got 14 per cent backing and Sharad Pawar has got 3 per cent backing. Arvind Kejriwal has got 4 per cent support.
Out of those surveyed, 66 per cent respondents have answered that they are aware of the AAP. Among them 45 per cent want the AAP to contest from their Lok Sabha seats and 32 per cent are inclined to vote for the AAP.