Click to play videoMaharashtra, Haryana and Arunachal Pradesh voted for their state Assemblies on Tuesday, but the elections may be reflective of the people's mood after the Lok Sabha polls.
TV exits polls and analysts give the Congress the lead--in alliance or on its own--in Maharashtra (288 seats), Haryana (90 seats) and Arunachal Pradesh (60 seats).
Does the Congress really have an advantage in the elections? Can its rivals spring a surprise? Did politicians raise relevant issues in these elections?
CNN-IBN's editor-in-chief Rajdeep Sardesai discussed these questions with Kumar Ketkar, editor of Loksatta, P Sainath, senior journalist and rural affairs editor of The Hindu, and Diptosh Majumdar, national affairs editor of CNN-IBN.
For political reactions on the elections the guests were: Rahul Narvekar, head of Shiv Sena's legal cell, and Jitendra Awhad, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) candidate from Mumbra-Kalwa.
Predicting Maharashtra
The Congress-NCP is likely to get between 135 to 145 seats in the Maharashtra Assembly elections, according to IBN Lokmat projections.
The Shiv Sena-BJP alliance is likely to get between 105 to 115 seats. Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) is likely to get eight to 12 seats in the 288-seat Assembly.
Others are likely to get between 25 and 35 seats. The Congress likely to be single largest party with 75 to 85 seats in the Assembly.
Is the Congress safe home in Maharashtra then? "It is not that easy," said Ketkar.
If the Congress gets 135 seats in the 288-seat Assembly, it may mobilize independents but the "price they will have to pay will be very, very hefty". The independents and rebels will demand lucrative ministries and departments from the Congress for their support, said Ketkar.
Sainath predicted that Congress-NCP would have a "decided advantage in government formation" if it crossed 125 seats in the Assembly because the alliance is in power at the centre and has been ruling the state for almost 10 years.
Raj Thackeray, Marathi identity factor
The MNS, most analysts agree, is expected to cut into the Shiv Sena's vote share in the Maharashtra elections. Has MNS leader Raj Thackeray captured the imagination of the Marathi Manoos, particularly the youth, from the Shiv Sena?
"The majority of Marathi-speaking people in Mumbai and Thane have mentally shifted to Raj Thackeray, if not Shiv Sena, at a second level. The same feeling prevailed in 1966, when the Shiv Sena was formed," said Ketkar.
But the irony is that issues raised in 1966 on behalf of the Marathi-speaking people have not been solved still. "The grievances of the so called the Marathi Manoos have not been answered either by the Shiv Sena or the Congress," he said.
Not just Marathis but everybody has a cause to feel aggrieved in Maharashtra, said Sainath. "This is a state that lost 2 million jobs before the recession began, according to the government's economic survey. Between 2006 and 2008, Maharashtra on average lost 1,800 jobs every day. Food production is down too," he said.
"You (the state) are doing abysmally poor and there is distress on every front. This is going to be capitalised and collared by various people," said Sainath.
Mumbai's voter turnout test
Mumbai recorded 52 percent voter turnout--a key factor in elections. The figure is five percent higher than in 2004, but it still means just one of two Mumbai voters cast their ballot.
The decline in Mumbai's political involvement is related to the decline of the city, believed Ketkar and Sainath.
"Mumbai was the manufacturing hub of India. It was also the mercantile hub of India. It was the service sector and stock market capital of India," said Ketkar. That has changed and shifted to "real estate market capitalism" which doesn't manufacture or trade anything but just sells land at tremendous prices.
In such an economy, only the rich and the political families can fight elections. The common man or the middle class has no chance to join this political process and that is perhaps why he is not interested in elections.
The ordinary citizen has been "priced out" of elections, said Sainath. "The data from affidavits of MLAs and re-contesting MLAs shows that a legislator between 2004 and 2009 added an average of Rs 4 lakh a month to his assets in Maharashtra."
"The leading person in that last--a single MLA--added Rs 52 crore to his assets when he was a legislator. The ordinary citizen--middle class or otherwise--has been priced out of the polling game," he said.
Diptosh Majumdar blamed political parties' inability to raise the relevant issues and capture people's imagination for the apathy of voters.
Majumdar was particularly critical of the state's Opposition parties, which he felt had failed to corner the state government. "The Opposition was very fragmented in what it stood for," he said.
The national picture
What do the elections tell about Maharashtra's future and will it lead create a debate on how to arrest the state's decline?
The decline will accelerate and not decline, said Sainath. "Elections are running ahead of the issues and impact. The agrarian crisis, the industrial crisis, mass migrations--we are into big trouble down six months," he said.
Ketkar said the entire political had no vision or plan to solve problems. "There is no leadership. The entire political class, irrespective of parties, is on one side and the people are on the other," he said.
If the Congress wins in Maharashtra, what would be the impact on two parties that were disappointed in the Lok Sabha elections: the NCP and the Shiv Sena.
The NCP denied any possibility of merging with the Congress if it did poorly in the Maharashtra elections. "Forget about possibility, it is not even under consideration. We would like to have our independent existence. Our performance will be better than 2004," said Awhad.
Narvekar admitted that if "unfortunately" seat projections for the Maharashtra elections come true the Shiv Sena would have to campaign harder. "There is no question of the party breaking. It is strongly united under the leadership of Mr Uddhav Thackeray. Those who had to go have left," said Narvekar.
Majumdar projected that if the Congress returns to power in the three states it would give the credit to its young general secretary, Rahul Gandhi. Gandhi's involvement in the Lok Sabha elections was largely limited to Uttar Pradesh but he still got credit for the Congress' national victory.
He campaigned for hardly two days in Maharashtra, but a victory in the state would the best time to the strengthen his hands further by giving him the credit. That is the "logic of political ruthlessness," said Majumdar.
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