India | Updated Jul 10, 2006 at 10:09pm IST

Missile scientists in the line of fire

New Delhi:The test-firing of the Agni III on Sunday was expected to place India on the threshold of big power status.

But its failure calls into question the very reliability of our missiles to deliver nuclear warheads.

It was an ego puncturing failure for an aspiring India. For two years, Indida's defence technologists claimed that they were ready to fire a missile which would extend the country's military reach to near-inter-continental proportions.

And then the Sunday crash. So what exactly went wrong with the AGNI III missile test?

The lift-off from Wheeler's Island off the coast of Orissa was flawless and the missile rose 12 km into the sky.

It was then that the trouble began. The separation of Agni III's two stages failed to happen as planned.

The firing sequence after the burnout of the first stage booster was undone and the missile began losing height, staying in the air for only five minutes instead of 15 as originally designed.

It plunged into the sea, about 1,000 km away from the point of launch, well short of the 3,500 km it was supposed to fly.

Says Ex-Chief Adviser Technology, DRDO, K Santhanam, "The stage separation did not occur. The first stage dragged onto the second and the desired trajectory could not be met."

Although development failures are not unusual, the Sunday drubbing of the Agni III may have just have shown up India's nuclear arsenal as one whose effectiveness is not convincingly proven.

Both the Agni I and Agni II, which are the mainstay of Indian deterrence capability, have been declared operational after just three tests each.

In contrast, the big powers are known to have tested their missiles hundreds of time before handing these over to their militaries.

Even Pakistan, which is reported to have acquired already proven missiles from China and North Korea, is known to test regularly for fool-proof reliability.

  • The credibility gap appears wider when you consider that India's nuclear bombs have been tested only six times.
  • In comparison the US has conducted 1054 tests and Russia over 700.
  • Reliability has been established through repeat testing. So, is India merely a notional nuclear power?

    Says Strategic Affairs Analyst, Bharat Karnad, "Both unproven systems and weapons are a recipe for disaster and someone may call the bluff someday."

    This missile testing was meant to be a demonstration of India's growing strategic clout. But an Agni blowing up in its face has done India's cause no good. The failure may force India to take another look at its belief that it can achieve nuclear credibility even with minimum testing.

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