Modi as PM? The time is not yet ripe

Corporate India has endorsed Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as a prime ministerial candidate. The praise of leading industrialists for Modi and suggestions that he could be the prime minister has created a flutter in the political circles. What was considered the unthinkable till a few years ago, is now suddenly in the realm of possibility.

Modi has won two elections and put Gujarat’s industrialisation on the fast track. Under his leadership, Gujarat has been able to attract investments worth many crores and the state has a favourable environment for business.

However, the ghost of the riots in 2002 refuses to leave Modi and his detractors have been crying hoarse that a man who was at the helm when innocent people were being massacred across the state cannot be considered a true leader.

With Lok Sabha elections just a few months away CNN-IBN’s Weekend Edition debated: Is Narendra Modi really prime minister material?

The panellists included Rajya Sabha MP and Editor-in-Chief, The Pioneer, Chandan Mitra, Managing Partner, Counselage, Suhel Seth, Congress Spokesperson Manish Tewari and Gandhian Scholar Tridip Suhrud. The debate was moderated by CNN-IBN Editor-in-Chief Rajdeep.

Chandan Mitra began the discussion by endorsing the statement of leading industrialists that Modi has the vision to lead India.

"Yes definitely, without doubt. I think it was something that was waiting to be said and the years of sustained media campaign and also campaign by his opponents to pull him down and denigrate him has now been finally and completely defeated. I think Narendra Modi is definitely one step closer to what we need," said Mitra.

So is Modi finally the leader to watch out for on the national political scene and the man to defeat if not in the 2009 General Elections than certainly in 2014.

Congress Spokesperson Manish Tiwari disagreed and said that industry leaders do not elect the prime minister but it the voter who does so. He also slammed Modi for his "abysmal” Human Rights records.

"It’s not five industrialists who elect the prime minister of India. It is the 1 billion people who elect the prime minister. I have no problems with a particular industrialist endorsing a particular leader but look at the man they have endorsed. He has the blood of innocents on his hand. He is a man who is not allowed to step on the soil of the United States of America because of his abysmal Human Rights records," said Tiwari

Tiwari went on to say that Modi will forever be judged by the riots of 2002. "Of course! Adolf Hitler will always be judged by the prism of concentration camps against the Jews.”

Mitra countered Tiwari and accused Congress of having a hand in many riots.

"I can only remind Manish that the blood of many innocents is on the hands of Congress particularly ant-Sikh violence in 1984. That cannot be a criteria and Congress cannot be anybody to talk about it," he said.

Tiwari claimed that the Congress has apologised for the 1984 anti-Sikh riots. "Unlike the BJP, the Congress apologised and expressed regret for it. There leaders actually patted him back after the Godhra massacre.”

So should Modi apologise for 2002 and will that be enough for his detractors?

Mitra said that an apology will not serve much purpose as Congress will find some reason to berate Modi.

"The Congress is scared of Narndra Modi and his popularity. Even if I assume that he will apologise they will find something else. They say he can’t visit America but what matters is he can step foot anywhere in India and win people’s confidence. Americans have backed tin-pot dictators throughout the world. They will have no issue on this," he argued.

Tiwari, however, continued to harp on Modi ‘poor’ Human Rights record and compared him with some of the most brutal dictators of the world.

"Modi is in the company of Milosevic (former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic) and people like Noriega (former military dictator of Panama Manuel Antonio Noriega) because of his Human Rights records who have not be allowed to set foot in various countries," he said.

At this point Rajdeep asked Suhel Seth is being the prime minister about values and not valuation?

Suhel Seth argued that choosing the prime minister of India is not and easy task but credited Modi for giving a transparent and corruption-free administration to the state.

"In India no one predict who will be the prime minister. No one ever imagined that we would have to suffer Deve Gowda (former prime minister HD Deve Gowda) or for that matter Inder Gujral (former prime minister Inder Kumar Gujral). I think the bigger point is has Narendra Modi as a brand moved from Godhra needle to a transformational role? The answer is yes. Does he galvanise corporate India? The answer is yes because his administration is largely believed to be honourable, not corrupt and very, very efficient. These are the realities of the man. I am not condoning what happened in Godhra. Judge a man in completeness," argued Seth.

"He has been able to attract investment, the way he has run the administration and third he is truly inspirational for the people of the state. I don’t care about the Congress or the BJP. He has won two elections but as Manish said five industrialists don’t make a prime minister. But our current prime minister has not been elected either," Seth added.

Tiwari, however, claimed that on all social parameter Gujarat has actually gone down.

Seth countered Tiwari’s claims saying, "We can either be in denial that the man does no good which is a silly premise to base the argument on. Sunil Mittal said we all run our company and he runs a state. He is a great CEO. What is CEO supposed to be?”

Gandhian Scholar Tridip Suhrud joined the debate from Ahmedabad and argued that noting is black and white but has shades of grey. He blamed Modi for focussing too much on industrial investments and neglecting the social sector.

"The truth lies in shades if grey. Here is a government that gives primacy to industrial investment to the exclusion of everything else. So the industrial houses are going to love him. He does not wish to burden his industrial policy with any social vision. So he creates a separation between social vision and an industrial vision which I think is misplaced. His administration has speeded judicial and administrative process so what is being lauded is that Gujarat has what constitutes economic development," said Suhurd.

"It is not an economic vision. It is an industrial investment vision. That does include a much larger idea of development and does not include a much broader vision of society," he said.

However, Mitra did not agree and said it was a myth that Modi is neglecting other sectors and only focussing on big industries.

"This myth is being created that he is industrial friendly so industrialists are endorsing him. Look at his schemes for ordinary people. Narmada waters are flowing upto Kutch. Jyotigram Project is bringing 24x7 electricity to every village, farmers are happy across the state or his girl-child scheme," claimed Mitra.

Tiwari once again challenged Mitra and pointed out that Gujarat has the highest female mortality rate after Punjab and Tamil Nadu and also has one of the worst sex ratio.

Suhel said that people vote not on statistics but on perception. He also disagrees with Suhrud and added that industrial investment adds value to the base products as well.

Rajdeep wondered if the performance on the economic front is good, then the limited social vision doesn’t matter. He said that there is a part of society which believes he (Modi) has not done enough for social cause. So is there a divide between social and economic agenda?

"If any one has an economic vision the social change is a by-product. You cannot have social change when there is no financial well being," Seth pointed out.

Rajdeep pointed out that Juhapura, a large cluster of Muslims in Ahmedabad, doesn’t have an ATM.

Mitra countered it by saying that a large part of India was yet to reaps the fuits of development.

"There are many parts of Gujarat and many parts of India where fruits of development have not reached. The fact is that the face of Gujarat riots, Qutubuddin Ansari, who was seen begging was taken to West Bengal and rehabilitated has come back and has said please leave me alone. I want to pursue my business," pointed out Mitra.

Tiwari, however, continued to slam Modi. "Narendra Modi is a fascist, continues to be a fascist and a fascist has no p-lace in the plural ethos of India," he added.

Has Modi Re-invented Himself?

A country is very different from a corporation. A country is plural so this analogy of a CEO becoming a prime minister may not be correct. The question that then arises is whether corporate India is getting ahead of itself?

To this Seth said, "What is Manmohan Singh? Is he a politician or a technocrat? Obviously a country is not a company but the three things that we look for are increased shareholder value, which means the citizenry of this country; we look at being responsible in terms of governance and we look at creating a ground of not just wealth but of capital which is equitable and just."

He said that he was not getting into whether Narendra Modi was equal to prime minister. Instead he said that the answer to know whether Narendra Modi had moved the needle either perceptionally or in reality was yes, he had.

Every politician is entitled to re-invent himself, so the next question naturally was whether Narendra Modi had arisen from Godhra or was he still stuck in that warp.

Tiwari answered this saying, "Let's evaluate the chief minister for prime minister in the terms that Suhel Seth has given. First of all, is there increasing shareholder value - no. The social and economic reality of Gujarat does not testify to it. Is he responsible in any sense of the word? The Godhra riots and its aftermath do not testify to it. Number three, is he increasing social and economic equity in the state? The answer is again no. You give benefits to industrialists so obviously they will come to your state."

When Seth interrupted, Tiwari reacted angrily by saying, "I have only evaluated Modi on your benchmark."

Seth responded with a barb, saying, "While I have a lot of respect for Manish, surely all the industrialists, all the people who came from overseas including ministers from Japan and Malaysia have limited intelligence - they may not be as bright as Manish and the Congress - but they must have some intelligence for having said these things about Modi and for choosing Gujarat to invest in."

Tiwari immediately shot back saying, "Being in the audience does not mean you endorse anybody for prime minister."

Hype And Marketing

But the fact is that the kind of industrialists who go to Gujarat do not go to a state like Bihar. Yet Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is working overtime to turn the state around from being a sick state - bigger challenge than inviting industrialists into Gujarat, which has always been on the fast-track.

Despite this, we don't see Nitish Kumar being advertised as prime minister material. This may lead people to wonder how much of Modi is actually hype and marketing.

Mitra answered this saying, "This is a good point, but let's wait for a few years and let Nitish Kumar retrieve a state which had been condemned to hell by his predecessors. He has to now build the infrastructure, he has to bring back a semblance of administration, he has to end goonda raj, and then you see. Maybe he too gets such endorsements."

Tiwari retorted saying, "Let's not make judgements. The same predecessor of Nitish Kumar has now turned Indian Railways around. I am not saying Lalu Prasad is prime ministerial material. All I am saying is that problems of certain states are systemic and they go beyond individuals. Therefore such judgemental observations on people are not correct."

But many say this means that becoming prime minister in the age of the media is how well you market yourself.

Seth said there was nothing wrong with that. "Obama became president through marketing. He used every trick in the book to get elected - from social networking sites, to firing the imagination of the youth. In this country it was Congress party leader Rajiv Gandhi who created the wave of marketing in politics. He had an advertising agent."

Modi And His Dualism

Whenever there is a debate on Narendra Modi, everything comes back to Godhra and his polarising. On one level, his supporters are citing investments and his integrity to give a relatively corruption-free administration, but the other side cites Godhra. Is it then possible to go beyond this dualism and see Modi in any other avtaar now?

To this Suhrud said, "A country works on the idea of dissent and not as a corporation so there is a huge difference between a democratically functioning country and a corporate which has no place for democratic decisions. Having said that, I think we can put Godhra aside only when there is a demonstration of justice delivered to the victims of the entire episode, whether they were Hindus, Muslims, Dalits or the OBCs."

"The problem is that the judicial system and the justice delivery system have been not seen to be non-partial, the commission of enquiry reports have not been coming in and the will of the judicial administration and the criminal investigation system has been very, very lax. So unless there is a very demonstrated act of justice to all the victims, we cannot move ahead," he added.

Seth responded by saying that he was in complete agreement with Suhrud. "I think the basic thing which Modi now needs to address is how to begin reconciliation with the truth and how to begin absolving himself of the realities of Godhra which have stuck on."

Those opposing Modi cite criticisms such as that Modi is a one-man band, he tolerates no dissent, he destroys institutions and he has the blot of Godhra on him. How does he get these criticisms to evaporate so that in a coalition era, he is an acceptable prime-ministerial choice for the BJP-led coalition.

Mitra said that Modi was not answerable only to his critics and that he was also answerable to the people of Gujarat and the people of India.

"After 2002, Modi has taken substantial steps to improve the administration and today he is getting endorsements from industrialists. All these years, he won two elections without any endorsements from industrialists. So industrialist endorsements are not the do all and end all of politics. It is a component that shows how much legitimacy he has acquired, and how people are viewing him in a new light."

Political Untouchable?

The Congress has been saying that Narendra Modi is someone who no one can do business with, treating the Chief Minister of Gujarat as a political untouchable. And the fact is that whenever there is a debate about Modi, it can never be objective like viewing his achievements. It always becomes emotional.

Tiwari cited the example of Hitler saying that in 1933, the whole world paid a price for one man's acts. "The fact of the matter is that it is a mindset problem and therefore he will remain an untouchable in politics."

But many wonder why the Congress cannot defeat Narendra Modi on the grounds of facts of figures.

Tiwari said that the facts and figures tell their own story. "It's a different matter of one or two elections, but the challenge remains for us that we have to defeat him at the elections and we will do that too one day. That day will also come."

It's obvious that Narendra Modi may have achieved a strong element of corporate acceptability but politically, the divide is still sharp. Time will tell where Narendra Modi is heading but it's clear that one can't write him off.

CNN-IBN Editorial:

There is little doubt that Narendra Modi is seen as an effective CEO of Gujarat, especially when it comes to attracting investments. But, being the prime minister of the country is not just about valuations, it is also about values.

Narendra Modi still needs to convince his critics that he has gone beyond the politics of hate and identity. If he is able to provide a social vision that is in sync with a plural India, there is little doubt that he will be a contender for prime ministership in the future.

But making that leap will require more than just effective political marketing. It will need to be matched by concrete action on the ground.

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