Gujarat pre-poll survey: Modi has an edge

ON A ROLL: Modi is scoring in popularity but the BJP is now losing ground.

              

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New Delhi: Narendra Modi’s position in Gujarat today is similar to that of Atal Behari Vajpayee before the last Lok Sabha elections. His popularity rating is high and so is the satisfaction level with his government.

Even if they have not heard about ‘vibrant Gujarat’ the people are receptive to his slogan. As of now, at the starting point of the race, his party is the front-runner. Yet something is amiss. He is more vulnerable than what these numbers show.

The CNN-IBN-Indian Express -Divya Bhaskar -- CSDS Gujarat Poll shows that the BJP was 5 percentage points ahead of the Congress in the first week of November, before nominations began.

The poll had a sufficiently large sample of 3,893 respondents that was spread across every third constituency in the state, was randomly selected and was thus fairly representative of all the diversities of the state’s electorate (Check out methodology).

Such a survey should not be off by more than one or two points. This lead does not appear to be simply due to fear among the respondents leading to over-reporting in favour of the BJP. We took special precautions in this survey to detect and correct for this type of over-reporting for the ruling party.

Taking everything into account, we estimate that at the time of this survey, the BJP’s share of popular vote stood at 45 per cent, compared to 40 per cent for the Congress.

There was no evidence for noticeable surge for the BSP or any other party in the state. Pre-poll surveys like this one tend to under-estimate smaller parties, but we can at least be sure that there is as yet no big third player in this election.

In a two-horse race, a lead of 5 points is big enough to give a decisive victory.

If Modi’s party can retain this lead till the end point of the race, it could win 100 out of 182 seats in the state assembly, leaving Congress behind at 76 seats.

This would cause little surprise in a state where the BJP has won all elections from 1991 till 2002 with a margin of about 10 percentage points.

Yet this election is different. This is more about Narendra Modi than about the BJP. This is about Modi building his own party and leading it to polls against his own party organisation.

The CNN-IBN – Indian Express – Divya Bhaskar -- CSDS survey shows that Narendra Modi has acquired a larger than life image for an average Gujarati voter. His popularity remains unmatched by any of his rivals within or outside his party.

Keshubhai does not come anywhere close to him even among the Patels. Waghela is more popular among the Congress voters but not beyond that. If anything Modi has gained in the last five years, as his major rivals have shed popularity points.

There is high level of satisfaction with his performance as the CM. Yes, there is unease with his handling of the rebels, disapproval of his dictatorial style of functioning and a lack of trust in his sincerity. Yet if the Gujaratis, BJP voters or otherwise, had their way they would have him rather than Advani or Vajpayee lead the BJP in the next Lok Sabha elections.