Click to play videoAn Indian Express-CNN-IBN-Divya Bhaskar poll suggests that the BJP will win between 92-100 seats in the Gujarat elections and secure a majority in the Assembly.
The Congress is expected to improve its tally from 51 in the last elections to 77-85 this time but it will fall short of challenging the BJP.
The election was perceived to be a referendum on Modi, and it appears he has won the test. Modi is the most popular political leader in the state and overall his government is perceived positively.
How will the outcome of the Gujarat polls influence politics at the Centre? Will Modi's victory strengthen the BJP or will it create more dissidence in the party? Rajeep Sardesai, CNN-IBN’s Editor-in-Chief, asked this to politicians, academics and journalists.
The guests on the show were: Yogendra Yadav, political analyst with the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Congress leader M Veerappa Moily, Gujarat BJP leader Jay Narayan Vyas, rebel BJP leader Gordhan Zadaphiya, journalist and Rajya Sabha MP Chandan Mitra, and Vandita Mishra, senior editor with The Indian Express
The personality
As many as 26 percent respondents went by the candidate's work while casting their vote, the post-poll survey found. As many as 24 percent respondents went by a party's leadership and just 7 percent went by caste. By those standards, Modi had a clear advantage.
Yadav, whose team at the CSDS conducted the survey, said Modi wanted this election to be a plebiscite on him and he was partially successful in that. "To the extent personality matters, the BJP had a clear advantage. Modi was way ahead of any political leader in terms of popularity," he said.
Modi remains the most popular choice | |||
Preferred CM… | 2002 | Pre-poll 2007 | Post-poll 2007 |
| Narendra Modi | 38 | 40 | 42 |
| Shankarsingh Waghela | 14 | 10 | 11 |
| Keshubhai Patel | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| Note: Rest of the respondents named other leaders or reported "No opinion" | |||
Zadaphiya, who was once Modi's confidante, was not impressed. "Individual popularity doesn't matter to a party. Chandrababu Naidu too had a popularity rating of 40-45 percent but the results in Andhra Pradesh were something else," said Zadaphiya.
Is the BJP comfortable with Modi's popularity? Has Modi become bigger than the party? "It's Modi who led the BJP but it’s the party which fights elections. It's like India being led by Mahendra Singh Dhoni in cricket—saying the BJP has become Narendra Janta Party is taking things too far," said Vyas.
The BJP may claim it worked as a team, but the fact its captain is reaping all the rewards. "This election was not about Hindutva but Moditva, which is a peculiar mix of Hindutva, Gujarati asmita and development. The overriding glue of this Moditva phenomena is personality cult," warned Mishra.
Yet less willingness to give the government another chance | ||
The BJP government in the state should… | Pre-poll | Post-poll |
| Get another chance | 51 | 47 |
| Not get another chance | 32 | 39 |
| Note: Rest of the respondents reported "Don’t know" | ||
Why didn't the Congress counter Modi by projecting its own chief ministerial candidate? "Because it's against democracy. The Congress fought the elections as a party but Modi did the same as Modi," said Moily.
Modi and his government
As many as 62 percent respondents in the pre-poll survey were satisfied with the state government and 64 percent in the post-poll survey. The trend usually is that ruling parties are not expected to gain such approval in the run-up to the election, said Yadav. There seems to be no anger against the Modi government—does that worry Zadaphiya?
"Development was excellent during Atal Behari Vajpayee's time but still the government fell. There is high dissatisfaction in Gujarat, and any development which doesn't help the voter individual won't help the party," said Zadaphiya.
Youth favour the BJP more but not women | ||
Vote BJP | Vote Congress | |
| Men | 46 | 43 |
| Women | 46 | 43 |
| Youth (below 25) | 48 | 41 |
| Elder (above 55) | 43 | 44 |
Moily alleged the Gujarat government's policies didn't include the whole society. "Development must be inclusive—it must percolate to everybody. Eighty percent of children in Gujarat suffer from anemia and FDI is coming down—Modi’s development is just like NDA’s India Shining campaign,” he claimed.
As many as 42 percent respondents said there was development for all in Gujarat, 26 percent said only the rich benefited and 15 percent said there was no development.
Most forward castes stayed with the BJP | ||
Vote BJP | Vote Congress | |
| Rajput | 50 | 34 |
| Leuva Patidar | 60 | 37 |
| Karwa Patidar | 83 | 11 |
| Other forward caste | 63 | 29 |
Is that why Modi, while campaigning, shifted from speaking about development to Sohrabuddin Sheikh and “merchant of death”?
Chandan Mitra admitted Modi had changed his strategy. “All Gujaratis feel Modi’s has brought all-round development in the last five years, but election campaigns have to be calibrated. Merely touting development statistics doesn’t win you votes. There has to be a combination of development and emotive appeal. And the Congress handed the emotive issue to Modi,” he said.
And the Congress also failed to exploit resentment against Modi. “There was wide-spread resentment against Modi among farmers and marginal groups, but the Congress failed to turn that into an election issue,” said Yadav.
Congress gained advantage among the marginal communities | ||
Vote BJP | Vote Congress | |
| Koli | 32 | 53 |
| Dalit | 35 | 52 |
| Adivasi | 36 | 41 |
| Muslim | 17 | 78 |
Moily rejected the survey’s claim that the BJP would win and said both “arithmetic and chemistry was against Modi. “There is fear in Gujarat, so your findings may not be correct and one thing clear whether Modi wins or not the BJP will certainly lose,” he said.
Even a reduced verdict will benefit Modi, said Mishra. “The BJP has cause for worry if Modi wins because it will be just his victory. It won’t even be Hindutva’s victory. There are three kinds of Hindutva in Gujarat now: Modi’s, the RSS-BJP’s and the Congress’ soft Hindutva. It’s Modi’s Hindutva’s which is going to win,” she said.
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