Click to play videoNational Security Advisor M K Narayanan says new Pak army chief won’t try “adventurist” action against India.
How does the Government regard the situation in Pakistan and what might be the implications for India? Those are the issues that Karan Thapar raised with National Security Advisor M K Narayanan on Devil’s Advocate.
Karan Thapar: Mr Narayanan, let me start with the obvious question. How do you view Pervez Musharraf today?
M K Narayanan: I think as of now, he is an elected President but the legitimacy of his presidency will probably have to be declared only after the Pakistan Parliament approves of it with a two-third majority. As things stand right now, it does seem possible that he would be elected with that majority. If that happens and he is the legitimate President of Pakistan, I think we’ll do business with him. We’ve done business with him in the past, and I think we will continue to do business with him.
Karan Thapar: So, he remains in your eyes, a credible interlocutor for India?
M K Narayanan: Yes, by and large, he remains a credible interlocutor for India to an extent because we will do business, as I said with, whoever has the stamp of approval in Pakistan.
Karan Thapar: Now that he has retired as the Army Chief, how much of his power and influence has he lost with his uniform?
M K Narayanan: That’s a difficult question to answer because, first and foremost, if you accept that the army is the arbiter of destiny in Pakistan, whoever doffs his uniform necessarily loses a certain amount of his sheen. However, what he has now is the chief of army who is a close comrade of President Musharraf. The chief of army is well acknowledged to be a professional soldier and it is therefore likely that the relationship between the civilian President and the military chief would remain cordial.
How long—is a matter which could remain for all time, but let’s look at the entire scenario: how does a civilian President play out in Pakistan where the army is the most dominant force? I think this is something that the people really have to look at closely. Next, you’re going to have possibly a new Prime Minister of Pakistan. Who that person is going to be is still in the realm of speculation. Therefore you’re going to have three centres of authority or power — a civilian President, who was at one time the President and Army Chief, the current Army Chief and a civilian Prime Minister. Therefore, you have three elements now as against one single unified element in the past. Quite clearly this is going to make a difference to the way it matters our.....
Karan Thapar: Are you also going to suggest that adjusting to a triumvirate, from a previous position where he was the omnipotent power of the country, might be a difficult transition for Musharraf?
M K Narayanan: I should think so. I mean, all things considered and granting that he would still have all his previous strength, it is going to be difficult. Whoever is the civilian Prime Minister, is certainly not going to accept a position where he is truly a subordinate to the President in that sense of the term. I am told today, for instance, who heads the Nuclear Command Authority or National Command Authority? Musharraf has said that he will. Now, I would presume that it would be the head of the government because it was originally supposed to be the head of the government. But the question in this case is who the head of the government here is? Is it the civilian Prime Minister or the civilian President? I mean, these are the kind of ticklish issues which would need to be sorted out.
Karan Thapar: In fact, these are the incipient clashes that are likely to happen post January.
M K Narayanan: Yes, but I must say that there is a certain amount of grudging respect for the manner in which President Musharraf has managed to overcome some of his previous trouble. He has moved from being a military President to a civilian President. He has seen that there is no boycott of the election to the assembly.
Karan Thapar: And so you think he can also manage these key incipient contradictions?
M K Narayanan: I think, in the short term, it should be possible. If he manages to do that in the long term then, of course, he is really a very able person.
Karan Thapar: If I correctly read what you said, in the long term his future or maybe his survival depends on that critical relation with the Army Chief. It is the loyalty of the new Army Chief to President Musharraf that will ensure President Musharraf’s survival for the full five years of his term?
M K Narayanan: I think if the army remains united, and I am not referring to Army Chief alone. I think what President Musharraf achieved—in the years that he served as Army Chief and subsequently as Army Chief plus President—is that he has put all his loyalists in the key positions.
So if the army remains united, the army doesn’t have fractious groups coming up within the system, and with a professional army chief in General Ashfaq Kayani, then the united army—which has a lot to continue to have by virtue of privileges and perks—may be willing to pay back to the civilian President.
Now, if you look around in West Asia, I don’t wish to name the countries, there are other countries which have seen similar kinds of transitions. They have army men or air force person taking over as the President or whatever is the chief executing authority. They are still surviving and some have survived for nearly two decades. It is not an improbable situation. A lot depends on what the possibilities are.
Karan Thapar: A lot depends on, as you said, the army staying united and not getting divided by fractions or factions. So do you see the army staying united in Pakistan?
M K Narayanan: At the moment I don’t see any signs of any cracks in the system. If you take the core commanders and various elements into consideration, they are all, in a sense, on the same wavelength. It may become different when ambitions start becoming important. You can speculate anyway, but at the moment, I am looking at it in a practical sense and from the point of view of an Indian National Security Advisor. Maybe strategic thinkers will excoriate me again like they did the last time for saying what I am saying. But as of now I don’t’ see any major cracks in the system.
Karan Thapar: Ambitions are in check. They may be there but they are in check?
M K Narayanan: Yes.
Karan Thapar: In that case, the other challenge that Musharraf faces is the strategy he launched to change the character of the Supreme Court to replace the old Chief Justice, and put in the place, pliant men of his own choice. Has he got away with that?
M K Narayanan: I don’t think he has got away with that. But the groups could not manage to rouse public sentiments against the issue. Finally they couldn’t bring people out onto the streets. I think there is angst both in the civil society as well as amongst the judiciary, etc.
Now there will be simmering concern, I presume for those of us who believe in democracy—but President Musharraf is on record saying that they have their version of democracy. I think he is not the first man to say that. Others have also said it before him. So the point is, whether he has got away with that—I don’t know. Some of these issues have a long gestation period, but as of now, I think, he seems to have papered over these problems.
Karan Thapar:: So simmering resentment there may be, even angst, but he has papered over the resentments for now?
M K Narayanan: Looks like it, at least to the extent that I can see.
Karan Thapar: Let’s talk a little about the new Army Chief General Ashfaq Kayani. During 2002 and the stand-off between India and Pakistan in that year, he was the Director General of Military Operations of his country, and in that capacity he was in fairly regular contact with senior Indian officials. Does that mean that India has a fairly good idea of what sort of a man he is, or does he remain a stranger to you?
M K Narayanan: No, I don’t think he is a stranger. If I remember correctly, I wasn’t around at that time, but I think he was the ADGMO at that time. I don’t think he was the DGMO of Pakistan military.
Karan Thapar: Forgive me, in 2002 he was, in fact, the full fledged DGMO.
M K Narayanan: Oh yes , sorry my mistake. I think there have been contacts, but by nature the impression about him is that he is a professional soldier. He is not a man with great political ambitions.
Karan Thapar: He is not a Napoleon?
M K Narayanan: He is not a Napoleon. That is too much to say. I think the soldiers who know him, think of him as a professional soldier. They also think that he is a loyal individual and that is what makes people think that the relationship between the civilian President Musharraf and the Army Chief will be reasonably smooth, at least in the short term.
Karan Thapar: From 2004 until very recently, General Kayani was also the Director General of the ISI. In that capacity, was he responsible for much of the terrorism that India has faced or do you subscribe to the view that under him Pakistan took meaningful and perhaps even credible steps to contain and curb terrorism?
M K Narayanan: Well, I don’t think we have that much of intelligence. Even if we did, I don’t think I should answer that question on candid camera but let me try and give you an answer which will meet half way.
I think the trouble with the ISI is that the leaders are sometimes persons who come in from outside. They don’t remain there long enough to get a total grip over the organisation. Other professionals, who have their own ideas and mandates, remain within the organisation. I don’t think the ISI changed under Kayani one way or the other. There was possibly, some kind of a tactical restraint, imposed from the outside—possibly by President Musharraf or by whatever the establishment was then.
But I think that applied only up to a certain point. In terms of the larger issues of mentoring Lashkar-e-Toiba and, to some extent, the Jaish-e-Mohammed etc, I don’t think there was any fundamental change in the attitude.
Quite often, there are elements in the system that do things which are not fully and totally known to you. But the point I am trying to make here is that General Kayani was certainly not the Hamid Gul, if that would answer the question for those of us who know Hamid Gul.
Karan Thapar:: Hamid Gul being a hardliner, Hamid Gul being a man who is almost dedicated to pushing terrorism.
M K Narayanan: ... and a great author of the belief —bleed India through a thousand cuts.
Karan Thapar: Do you have serious qualms about Kayani or are you reasonably satisfied with Kayani as the new Army Chief?
M K Narayanan: Well, it is not for us to decide. If the questions is —will General Kayani indulge in an adventurist action against India—I think the answer would be no, because I think he is too professional a soldier to attempt it. I think it will be very foolish for anyone from any country today to try any adventurist action or hope that they catch India in what we will call a complacent mode at any moment.
Karan Thapar: Mr Narayanan, in three weeks Pakistan will go to the polls and the major parties have announced that they will be participating. What sort of outcome are you anticipating?
M K Narayanan: You are asking me to cast the political horoscope of Pakistan three weeks down the road. Here I have to go by what is called the conventional wisdom. The conventional wisdom seems to say that no single party is going to get a majority. What of course is significant is that there is no major boycott. Almost all political parties have come in to participate. There are smaller parties who are not involved but the PPP is participating, the PML-N is participating and the PML-Q is participating. So by and large there is enough credibility as far as these elections are concerned. But the fact is that if the PML-Q and the PML-N are engaged in a conflict, then I think the beneficiary is certainly going to be the PPP. However, even with all of this, the PPP may not get a majority. It is something that I would say President Musharraf wouldn’t like to happen.
Karan Thapar: In recent weeks and months, Benazir Bhutto, in interviews that she has given, in articles that she has written, has repeatedly committed herself to ending all terrorist camps in Pakistan and to curbing all private militias. She has even talked about the possibility of extraditing Daewood Ibrahim, perhaps even giving India access to men like Hafiz Mohammad and Sayed Mahmood Azar. If she were to become the Prime Minister of Pakistan in January, would you welcome it?
M K Narayanan: If she lives up to her promises, most certainly.
Karan Thapar: What if she will?
M K Narayanan: It is difficult to believe. One has to go by what she did in the nineties. One is always a little sceptical. It is possible, but her track record is not necessarily something which will make us believe that she would follow to the letter of what she has said—I think even if she wishes to do so. As I mentioned earlier, the single most important entity in Pakistan remains the army and along with that ISI. I find it extremely difficult to believe that the Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, if she becomes that, will have a free hand in doing all the things that she wishes to do.
I know that in 1988 when she met with Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi she made a number of promises. We know almost certainly that she was sort of curbed by the military at that point but whether she will have success now is difficult to believe and it would be very optimistic to expect that she can fulfil whatever she says but we hope that she will do her best.
Karan Thapar: Now Musharraf, as you yourself indicated earlier, is hoping that the new assembly will not only ratify his election as President but more importantly indemnify the Emergency that he declared and the steps that he has taken under that Emergency. But if Benzair Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif as you have already named were to end up with 50 per cent or more of the seats in the national assembly, which very easily they could, could Musharraf be in danger?
M K Narayanan: I think the Attorney General has just mentioned that before the Emergency is lifted they are going to put in place a whole series of measures.
Karan Thapar: And won’t those need to be indemnified by the new assembly?
M K Narayanan: It is going to be ticklish issue but I think the point is that if there are measures to indemnify the President or President’s actions, then overturning them, even by an assembly unless it an overwhelming majority, is going to be difficult. I think one should read real horoscope and not the political horoscope I am talking of because if they do legally put in some measures it is not going to be easy for even an elected parliament unless it has a four-fifth of a...
Karan Thapar: Assuming President Musharraf does continues, he overcomes the obstacles that he is facing and establishes a good relationship with the Army Chief, are you confident that by some time around the middle of 2008 he can pick up on the peace process with India and take it forward?
M K Narayanan: That’s what we are hoping. I think there are things which are in the pipeline, or which are still cooking or half cooked or three quarter cooked which we would like to take forward. The point really is that it is not really taking it forward. Would he be able to convince the other power structures that have come up in addition to him that this is best thing for Pakistan? That is a question mark. But we are hopeful that if by that time he has overcome all the obstacles, he would have a degree of credibility and acceptance which would make it easier for him to do so.
Karan Thapar: So in a word, he remains, despite all the problems associated, India’s best bet at the moment?
M K Narayanan:I think even in your previous interview you had mentioned this. Mr Thapar, the point is that we will deal with whoever is in place in Pakistan because we are quite conscious. We cannot pick and choose whom we deal with. If the people of Pakistan— with whatever measure, or mechanism they have chosen to make him the President—we will deal with it. We have dealt with him in the past and that experience, as our Prime Minister has said, has not been something which we are uncomfortable with and so we will go forward with it.
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