GUJARAT POST POLL 2012 SURVEY FINDINGS - PHASE 1

Note: All figures are in per cent; all 35 seats of South Gujarat, all 48 seats of Saurashtra, and four seats of North Gujarat went to the polls in Phase I; figures reported here are based on Post Poll survey conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

BJP would most likely remain the single largest party and GPP could finish with a double digit vote share. High gap between the vote shares of BJP and the Congress is likely.

Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; figures reported here are based on Pre and Post Poll surveys conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats; Pre Poll survey was conducted between 13 Oct and 20 Oct 2012; Post Poll survey in randomly sampled Phase I seats was conducted between 13 Dec and 14 Dec 2012.

During the campaign, there was a marginal shift towards the Congress and the GPP. There was a slight decline in the vote share of the BJP during the campaign period.

All figures are in per cent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion; figures for 2012 Post Poll surveys conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats. Other figures are from previously conducted post poll surveys

A sizeable proportion of voters seem to have taken their voting decision a few days before polling or during campaign as compared to previous years. This could partly explain the increase in the Congress and the GPP's vote share during the campaign period.

Note: All figures are in per cent; figures are based on Pre and Post Poll surveys conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

The number of voters willing to reelect the incumbent BJP government seems to have declined over the last few months.

Note: All figures are in per cent; figures are based on the Post Poll survey conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

Voters in Saurashtra are almost equally divided on their opinion on reelecting the incumbent BJP government.

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion; figures are based on Pre and Post Poll surveys conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

Preference for Narendra Modi as Chief Minister seems to have dipped a little during the campaign period.

Note: All figures are in per cent; figures are based on the Post Poll survey conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

While Narendra Modi continues to be most popular even amongst the Patels, Keshubhai Patel is also strongly preferred as Chief Minister by a sizable proportion of Patel voters.

Note: All figures are in per cent; figures are based on Pre and Post Poll surveys conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

Satisfaction among voters with the work done by the BJP government seems to have dipped over the past few months.

Note: All figures are in per cent; figures are based on the Post Poll survey conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

Though the Patels have shifted away from the BJP, their satisfaction with the work done by the government remains extremely high.

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had no opinion; figures are based on Post Poll survey conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats. All 35 seats of South Gujarat and all 48 seats of Saurashtra went to the polls in Phase I.

Overall, price rise and Bijli-Sadak-Paani seem to be the most important election issue for the respondents. In Saurashtra, however, farme's issues and problems seem to be more important than price rise. On the other hand, in South Gujarat, almost one third of the respondents consider price rise as the most important issue in these elections.

Note: All figures are in per cent; figures are based on Post Poll survey conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

For both BJP and Congress voters the party seemed to matter more than the candidate, while a large proportion of the GPP voters put more importance on the candidate.

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had no opinion; figures are based on Post Poll survey conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

Party's leadership mattered most for the voters of all three major parties. Even those who said that they voted for party, voted largely for the party leadership.

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had no opinion; figures are based on Post Poll survey conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

Overall, those who paid more attention to the candidate than the party largely voted on the basis of the work done by the candidate. However, for the Patels, the candidate's caste/community was another important consideration.

VOTE BY SOCIAL BACKGROUND AS PER POST POLL SURVEY FOR PHASE 1

Note: All figures are in per cent; figures are based on Post Poll survey conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

It appears that, BJP is leading among Upper Castes, Kshatriyas, Kolis and other OBCs. GPP seems to be making inroads into the Patel social base of both BJP and Congress. Congress seems to be maintaining its hold over SC, ST and Muslim voters.

Note: All figures are in per cent; figures are based on Post Poll survey conducted in randomly sampled Phase I seats.

The GPP seems to be making inroads into the Leuva Patel vote bank of both the BJP and the Congress. There is a possibility that the BJP could lose some of its traditional Karwa Patel vote bank to the GPP.