Apr 04, 2014 at 11:36pm IST

National tracker: Modi-powered NDA may get 234-246 seats, UPA 111-123

The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is almost certain to form the next government according to CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti-The Week national election tracker. The NDA is projected to get 234-246 Lok Sabha seats in the elections while the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is likely to bag just 111-123 according to the projections by Chennai Mathematical Institute Director Rajeeva Karandikar. The survey indicates that BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is propelling the NDA to power at the Centre.

When compared to 2009 Lok Sabha results, the NDA almost doubling its seats and the UPA is losing half of its seats. The worse thing is Congress may get less than 100 Lok Sabha seats for the first time in its history. According to election tracker the Congress may get 94-106 Lok Sabha seats on its own.

The BJP is likely to cross 200 seats mark for the first time in its history by bagging 206-218 Lok Sabha seats on its own. The lowest count for the Congress was 114 seats in 1999 and the highest for the BJP is 182 seats in 1998 and 1999 under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

According to election tracker the BJP is making huge gains in the Hindi belt states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Jharkhand and its Prime Ministerial nominee Narendra Modi's home state of Gujarat. The BJP is ahead of the AAP in Delhi which has 7 Lok Sabha seats.

It is in a close fight with the Congress in Karnataka and slightly ahead in Maharashtra. The BJP is not making any gains in Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam and other Northeastern states.

It may get a few seats in Telangana, which will be India's 29th state from June 2, 2014.

Congress

The ruling Congress is staring at a huge defeat in most of the states. Some of them have been its strongholds for a long time. It is doing well in only two states - Karnataka and Kerala, where it is in power.

The Congress is likely to be decimated in Andhra Pradesh, which delivered the maximum number of seats for the party in both 2004 and 2009. Telangana's creation and YS Jagan Mohan Reddy's revolt seems to have ended the Congress free run in AP.

Even in Telangana with 17 seats, the Congress is not doing well. Pro-Telangana party the TRS is likely to do well here. The Congress is likely to be pushed to third place in Odisha. In Maharashtra, it is doing slightly better.

Mamata may emerge stronger

The Trinamool Congress supremo and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee may emerge stronger after the Lok Sabha elections by winning almost 30 seats from her state. The TMC is projected to win 23-29 seats making it the third largest party in the Lok Sabha after BJP and Congress.

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK is expected to win 15-21 seats. The Left Front may suffer yet another debacle by bagging just 15-20 seats. The TDP and the YSRCP are expected to win 11-19 and 9-15 Lok Sabha seats respectively.

Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik's BJD is likely to get 10-16 seats, SP 11-17, DMK 10-16, BSP 10-16, TRS 4-8 and AAP 4-8 respectively.

Non-NDA and non-UPA parties are likely to get 170-180 Lok Sabha seats. But, most of these parties are fighting with each other in their respective states and so they may possibly not join hands.

How to form a government?

The BJP-led NDA may fall short of 30-40 seats for a simple majority figure of 272 Lok Sabha seats. However, it can take the help of YSR Congress Party, TRS, DMK or AIADMK, BSP and TDP to reach the halfway mark. The TMC and BJD have made it clear that they will not back the NDA. But, they can change their mind once the results are out.

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