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Nitish may leave NDA if Modi is declared PM candidate: Sumit Pande

IBNLive.com
Apr 15, 2013 at 07:54pm IST

How much does Nitish's threat affect Modi's ambition to become the PM? CNN-IBN's deputy bureau chief Sumit Pande joined IBNLive readers for an interaction on the issue.

Q. Nitish drama easily readable.. to woo the Minority voters he trying to attack Modi.. just a vote bank politics? Asked by: hari

Nitish may leave NDA if Modi is declared PM candidate: Sumit Pande

How much does Nitish's threat affect Modi's ambition to become the PM?

A. Nitish Kumar is clearly looking at his prospects...as all politicians do...people close to him claim that the massive victory in the last assembly polls was supplemented by a section of the minorities voting for JDU....while Kumar proposes to realign the Upper caste-part-OBC-part MBC rainbow coalition by raking in a huge inflow of minority votes in the case of split with the BJP...he is strategically reaching out of poorer states and their leaders like Mamata, and naveen patnaik in the post poll political permutations and combinations.

Q. Totally agree with Kalyani.. Don't you think Nitish has back-stabbed BJP's liberal behaviour? Asked by: Apoorva Krishna Srivastava

A. In politics, one takes decisions on the basis of ones calculations...everything except interest is temporary in politics....Nitish Kumar is making his political moves on the basis of how he plans his politics in the days ahead...that's it...and above all has objected to Modi and not the BJP...leaving the BJP to answer the question whether BJP is Modi.

Q. Why would Sharad Yadav who has very good relations with BJP and who has been soft on Modi, sacrifice his political ambitions for the Prime Ministerial ambitions of Nitish? Asked by: Apoorva Krishna Srivastava

A. Sharad Yadav owes his current political position to Nitish Kumar.

Q. Hi, Sumit Pande. I have a question had if Nitish Kumar left the NDA in 2002 only just as Paswan lefty, he wouldn't have had to play this farcical drama right. He has grown in Bihar at the expense of BJP since BJP treats its partners with respect and allows them to grom in states. Is it not unfair on part of Nitish to back stab the BJP at such a crucial moment after all these years? Asked by: Kalyani

A. On the other hand JDU argues that the BJP's survival in the other crucial Hindi heartland state has been on the OBC base being sustained by the JDU...in a similar demography in the adjoining UP, BJP in absence of an OBC leader has lost considerable ground to become almost irrelevant at the ground level...JDU BJP has been an assiduously built alliance working at multiple levels...social, political and both seems to have gained out of it...in politics...as they say there are no free lunches.

Q. Today scenario people feels that failed parties have only choice to attack others by talking about secularism instead of their works .. is it right? Asked by: hari

A. Nitish Kumar has enlarged the canvas quite a bit...inclusive vs exclusive...rich vs poor...diversity vs uniformity...he is has set his own agenda...the rest people will decide..

Q. If Nitish walk out NDA.., he will join Cong+RJD allies and fight election against BJP? or Con+RJD, JDU & BJP three parties will go for election? Asked by: hari

A. Politics can throw up strange bedfellows...but the Nitish-Lalu alliance is least probable...one can even rule it out...even JDU-Cong pre-poll pact looks unlikely....there will be multicornered fight and the arithmetic of the next Lok Sabha will decide the shape of the next govt.

Q. By not naming Modi, Is Nitish watering down his rhetoric. By Clubbing the issue of Modi with other three contentious issues .. clearly it seems it is just a positioning exercise. Asked by: Noor Ahmed

A. Not naming Modi is a part of the political strategy it appears...

Q. According to my view, any move by Nitish to break its alliance with BJP on the question of Modi will inevitably cause a vertical split in JD(U). The pro-BJP faction most probably led by Sharad Yadav, who has been extremely soft on Modi, will remain with NDA. Your view? Asked by: Apoorva Krishna Srivastava

A. Split in politics means a vertical division...since Nitish on his own is pretty close to majority in Bihar...without BJP his govt survives...split looks unlikely....one must also understand...split are orchestrated by leaders...leader in this case in JDU is Nitish kumar...Sharad Yadav is party president...

Q. Nitish Kumar has to face the electorate again in 2015. Do you agree that Nitish Kumar will never leave the NDA and risk this CM position? Asked by: Manish Sharma

A. If Modi is declared PM candidate by the bjp ...Nitish Kumar...in view of the position he has taken...will have to sever ties with NDA...

Q. There is a strong perception that Nitish is jealous of Modi`s popularity as he too harbours prime ministrial ambitions.Could there be any truth in this? Asked by: kaushik bhowal

A. Everyone in politics harbors political ambitions...from panchayat to the national level...

Q. When Nitish claims Bihar is growing, why is he fighting for special status and putting down Modi's administrative capacity? What will be risk if BJP parts way from JDU in Bihar? Asked by: Laks

A. BJP problems lie in its inherent demographic constraint....Of the 540 odd lok sabha seats in the country...BJP has little or no political foot print in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal, the entire NE except for a few seats in Assam...on top of that the party has lost substantial ground in UP which sends 80 MPs to the lok sabha...which means in the current situation the party is in serious contention in 270 to 300 seats... ...No matter who is leading the BJP...for it to win seats in Kerala is a little far fetched...which is where Vajpayee's experiment with alliance politics assumes significance...wherein the BJP through its pre-and post polls allies expands its footprint to come closer to the half way mark.

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