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Countdown UPA: 10 absent MPs may save the day for Govt

TimePublished on Mon, Jul 21, 2008 at 08:16, Updated on Mon, Jul 21, 2008 at 19:53 in India section

MATHEMATICS OF SURVIVAL: The trust vote on Tuesday would decide the fate of Manmohan Singh led UPA Govt.

MATHEMATICS OF SURVIVAL: The trust vote on Tuesday would decide the fate of Manmohan Singh led UPA Govt.


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New Delhi: According to a CNN-IBN poll, there are likely to be at least 10 abstentions from the BJP during the crucial floor test on Tuesday, which might help the Government sail through.

UPA is now banking on the 10 MPs from the NDA who may not show up. CNN-IBN learns they include one from Shiv Sena , two from JD(U) , 1 from the BJD, two from Karnataka BJP, two from Rajasthan BJP, and two from Gujarat BJP.

The Government and the Opposition were, till some time ago, within striking distance of each other in the numbers game a day before the floor test. But the abstentions might just make the key difference.

According to figures at 1600 hrs (IST), there were 269 MPs for the Government, 268 against it and four lawmakers are still undecided. The UPA has 221 MPs of its own, the Samajwadi Party has 34, there are 6 rebel MPs of other parties and 8 ‘others’.

The Opposition has 268 votes. The NDA has NDA 165 votes, Left Front 58, BSP 17, other party rebels 7, Others are 21, undecided 4, Independents are 2 and a vote each from TC and MNF.

In the last 24 hours, these are the members who have moved away from the NDA fold into the UPA fold. These are two members of the BJP, two from the JDU, 1 from the TRS and one member of the Shiv Sena.

Then there are those like Karnal MP Arvind Sharma who have been threatening to leave the UPA and support the UNPA.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS

bulletTrust vote motion is moved as soon as the Lok Sabha meets at 11 am. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to speak first, LK Advani to respond.

bullet CNN-IBN projection: Government little behind in the race for MPs, 267 favour the deal while 269 are against it.
bulletThe five undecided MPs will play a crucial role. The list includes three Independents, one from Mizo National Front and Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamool Congress.
bulletAbstentions can be helpful for the UPA. Five BJP MPs didn't turn up at the NDA dinner.
bulletThe actual vote takes place on Tuesday, anytime between 8 and 10 pm.

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