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Apr 01, 2014 at 09:22am IST

Odisha tracker: Naveen's BJD to win 10-16 seats, BJP 3-7, Congress 0-4

New Delhi: Odisha is witnessing a close fight between the ruling BJD and the BJP with Congress, the main opposition in the state, now slipping to third position.

According to CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS national election tracker and seat projections by Chennai Mathematical Institute Director Rajeeva Karandikar Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal will win 10-16 seats, BJP 3-7, Congress 0-4 and Others 0-2 in the state which has 21 Lok Sabha constituencies.

The BJD is likely to get 34 per cent votes and the BJP is likely to get 30 per cent of the votes. The Congress is projected to get 26 per cent votes. The AAP is expected to garner just 1 per cent votes and the others remaining 9 per cent votes.

But, in the state Assembly elections Naveen Patnaik is the most preferred choice for the CM and his party is way ahead in the Vidhan Sabha race. Odisha is going to both Lok Sabha and Assembly polls simultaneously.

A whopping 58 per cent of the respondents back Naveen Patnaik for the post of the chief minister. Congress leaders Jaydev Jena and Srinat Jena have just 4 per cent backing respectively. When it comes to the regional picture for LS elections in Odisha, there is a close contest between the BJD and BJP in coastal Odisha. In Western part of the state, the ruling BJD is leading comfortably. In southern Odisha, Congress is leading the race and the BJD is in second place.

When it comes to Lok Sabha vote preference, the BJP is doing very well in urban areas. The BJP has 36 per cent backing in the urban areas. The BJD has 33 per cent and the Congress has 31 per cent support. In rural areas the BJD has 34 per cent support, the BJP 29 per cent and the Congress 25 per cent support.

When it comes to LS vote preference, the Upper castes are mostly with the BJP, the OBCs mostly with the BJD, Dalits and Tribals split between all parties.

Over half the respondents ARE of the opinion that Naveen Patnaik's clean image and good governance is the reason why his party keeps winning elections in Odisha. 23 per cent of the respondents feel that the clean image of Naveen Patnaik is responsible for it. 16 per cent feel that the good administration is responsible for this. 17 per cent respondents feel that both are responsible for it.

However, a significant number of respondents (21 per cent) feel that the absence of a strong alternative is responsible for the long tenure of the BJD rule.

Modi leads PM race

The PM choice of Odisha, Narendra Modi's rising popularity seems to be pushing the BJP forward. A whopping number of 40 per cent respondents back Modi for the post of the PM. Rahul Gandhi has got 21 per cent backing and Sonia Gandhi has 11 per cent backing. The chief minister Naveen Patnaik has got 14 per cent backing for the post of PM. According to political analysts Naveen Patnaik could emerge as the consensus choice, if the third front comes to power at the Centre. Interestingly, most voters in Odisha including some BJP voters feel that Naveen Patnaik would be a good choice for the post of PM.

Overall 46 per cent feel that he will be a good PM. Among the BJD voters, it goes up to 60 per cent. Surprisingly a whopping 46 per cent of the BJP voters also feel that Naveen Patnaik will be a good choice for the post of PM. The BJD voters seem quite optimistic about Patnaik's chances of becoming the next PM. 41 per cent BJD voters and 36 per cent overall voters feel that he can become the PM. The net satisfaction with the BJD government is also 38 per cent.

The anti-UPA government sentiments are steadily rising in Odisha. 66 per cent respondents feel that the UPA should not get another chance. Only 27 per cent of them feel that it deserves one more chance.

Top five voting issues in Odisha

Development - 25 per cent

Price rise - 12 per cent

Corruption - 11 per cent

Vote for Modi - 5 per cent

Unemployment - 3 per cent