Click to play videoJharkhand is once again staring at a hung Assembly with no political party or alliance anywhere close to the halfway mark of 41 seats in the 81-member House.
Though, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) seems to have a clear edge as it has won 25 seats but Shibu Soren’s Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) with 18 seats is likely to demand the post of chief minister in lieu of extending support.
UPA could also get support of the five MLAs belonging to Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal.
For the Bharatiya Janata Party-Janata Dal (United) alliance the scenario of forming the next government in Ranchi looks bleak as the alliance has managed to win just 20 seats. But if JMM and All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), which has five MLAs, extend their support then the BJP-JD(U) combine can once again be in power in the state.
The key to the government formation lies with Soren, who is a prominent tribal leader and considered one of the original flag bearers in the struggle for Jharkhand.
But there are several factors against him as he is caught in legal cases. He was convicted and later acquitted in a murder case of his assistant Shashi Nath Jha. He was also in trouble for his role in the JMM bribery scandal.
The other major contender for the chief minister’s post is Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) President Babulal Marandi.
Marandi, who was the first chief minister of Jharkhand, left the Bharatiya Janata Party in 2006. He has a clean image and fought with the Congress as a pre-poll ally. He is also the only tribal leader available for the Congress as most of its other tribal stars have lost.
However, he is not considered fit for leading a multi-party coalition and is still considered a Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh man.
CNN-IBN special show Battle for Jharkhand discussed how the next government in Ranchi will be formed.
The panels of experts included Babulal Marandi, Congress MP and Spokesperson Manish Tewari, The Pioneer Editor-in-Chief and BJP member Chandan Mitra and CNN-IBN National Affairs Editor Diptosh Majumdar.
Will the verdict make Jharkhand politically stable?
"The type of mandate that electorate of Jharkhand has given shows that no political party or alliance is near the halfway mark. The mandate is fractured. The verdict means that no one should say that he or she should be made the next chief minister of the state. He (Shibu Soren) has got only 18 seats and many more seats are needed. I have given my view on what needs to be done in such a situation. We should look at the past and according to the Constitution the largest alliance should get the chance to form the next government. If the largest alliance fails then the alliance or party at the second place should get a chance," said Babulal Marandi.
Congress maintained its stand that with such a fractured mandate nothing could be decided immediately and negotiations must be entered into to explore the possibilities of forming the next government in Ranchi.
"The situation is fluid and it is evolving. People do take negotiating positions. JMM and the RJD are a part of the UPA. There is going to be negotiations. We will talk with our observers and leaders. What Babulal Marandi has said is constitutionally the correct position. It is not appropriate to second guess the consultation process. The results have come in and let the negotiations unfold," said Congress Spokesperson Manish Tewari.
On the other hand the BJP-JD(U) alliance with only 20 seats has been saying that the it is waiting and watching the situation.
"The fact is that with 20 seats in a House of 81 the BJP-JD(U) alliance is not in a position to claim that they have won a phenomenal victory. It is a completely fractured mandate. I will go along with Manish in this saying that there will be a process of consultation among all parties," said Chandan Mitra.
So if talks between the Congress and JMM fail, will the BJP enter into negotiations with Shibu Soren?
"Shibu Soren's position is like being at a swayamwar. He has to decide who he is going to put the garland on because without his support it is really impossible for any government to be formed. So he has to make up his mind," said Mitra.
Will this verdict lead to more corruption in Jharkhand?
"We won’t get a government as corrupt as we got last time. Last time there were five ruthless, valueless Independents who made a sinful government. Never before has any state been run in such a valueless way. If Marandi forms that government then probably the administration will be much cleaner than what JMM can deliver. But Shibu Soren will always be there whichever government comes to power. Corruption chances are less than last time but they are still there," hoped Diptosh Majumdar.
"We have proposed that the alliance with most seats should elect its leader and stake its claim to form the government. The like-minded parties should support such a government. If that fails then other parties or alliances should be given a chance," Marandi added.
Congress, however, maintained that it was not just a question of forming the next government but also delivering results.
"When the mandate is fractured then you need to have a government that is cohesive and stable. Obviously there are legacy issues, issues of corruption, and issues of track record which also have to be kept in mind because at the end of the day it is not about forming a government alone. It is about having a five-year road map and being able to deliver goods to the people," Tewari said concluding the debate.
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