Poll tracker: Can AAP have any impact on the national picture?

CNN-IBN
Jan 21, 2014 at 12:24am IST

New Delhi: Born out of the anti-corruption agitation in 2011, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) made a stunning debut in Delhi Assembly elections and went on to form the government with Congress's support. According to the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll, AAP is taking away votes from all the parties.

Nationally, AAP is taking away 0.7 per cent of Congress votes, 0.5 per cent BJP votes and 2.8 votes of other parties. The AAP voters consist of 18.2 per cent of those who earlier voted for Congress, 11.4 BJP voters and 71 per cent of those voters who has earlier opted for some other parties.

AAP's key voters are Sikhs (13 per cent), urban voters (10), college educated (9), upper class (8), high exposure to media (7), youth between the age of 18-25 years (6), upper caste (5) and Muslims (5).

While AAP is likely to get four per cent of votes nationally, there is wide regional variation. In north India, the party will bag 9 per cent of the votes, West India 5, Central India, 2, South India and East India only 1 per cent.

AAP leader and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is the preferred PM candidate across the 18 states where the poll was conducted for only 3 per cent of the voters. In Delhi, 34 per cent want him to be the PM, in Punjab, he has the support of 12 per cent and in Haryana it is 10.

On the other hand, in Assam, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, there is zero support for Kejriwal as the PM candidate.

In the 18 states, 54 per cent of the voters know about AAP with Delhi (97 per cent) and Andhra Pradesh (33) at the two extremes. A total of 18 per cent of the voters in the 18 states where the poll was conducted have expressed their inclination to vote for AAP.

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