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Pre-Poll Survey: Close fight in TN

CNN-IBN
Apr 14, 2006 at 05:33pm IST

New Delhi: It is anybody’s game in the crucial Tamil Nadu elections this time. A CNN-IBN-Hindu pre-poll survey predicts that it is going to be a very close race between the alliances of the two Dravidian outfits in the 234-member strong Tamil Nadu Assembly.

It has always been a neck-to-neck fight for votes between the two main Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu. The DMK won the elections in 1996 and the AIADMK in 2001. In 2006, it is too close a contest to call.

Preferred Chief Minister

42%
39
5%
1%
1%
Jayalalitha
Karunanidhi
Vijaykanth
S.Ramdos
M.K Stalin
Others and No Opinion: 12%

The CNN-IBN-Hindu pre-poll survey has come up with bagful of surprises as far as public mood in the Dravidian heartland is concerned.

According to the survey, the AIADMK will get a 46 per cent share of the votes and the DMK 44 per cent. Actor-politician Vijaykanth’s party, the DMDK, is projected to get 5 per cent of the votes. Such a close fight means that later the field could be open for small groups during government formation.

Even poll pundits won’t risk predicting the exact number of seats the AIADMK and the DMK will win, but both parties might get almost an equal number of seats.

Surprisingly, the survey found that a great majority of people are happy with the AIADMK-led government’s functioning though anti-incumbency will be a factor in the elections. As many as 67 per cent respondents felt satisfied with the government. Only 24 per cent felt dissatisfied.

But the real surprise is the competition between key personalities. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and AIADMK chief J Jayalalitha outperforms DMK chief and former chief minister M. Karunanidhi on the counts of governance, concern for poor, development and ironically controlling corruption as well.

Jayalalitha, despite the incumbency factor, is still the most preferred person for the chief minister’s post. According to the survey, 42 per cent respondents would like Jayalalitha to be the next chief minister. As many as 39 per cent respondents favoured M Karunanidhi for the post. Vijaykanth came a distant third in the preference list.

Vijaykanth, whose party will be the third largest force in the elections, could be the dark horse. He has managed to dent the vote base of almost all parties. According to the survey, 49 per cent of his support comes from the DMK base and 25 from AIADMK base.

CNN-IBN-Hindu pre-poll survey: Complete results

PAGE_BREAK

Jayalalitha vs. Karunanidhi
J.Jayalalitha
M. Karunanidhi
Better for governance
45
40
Concern for the poor
42
38
Development of the state
38
32
Controlling corruption
31
25

Assessment of government performance

Which govt. was better?
J.Jayalalitha
Present ADMK
42%
Previous DMK
38%
Both same
10%
No opinion
10%

Satisfaction with the work of present government
Satisfied
67%
Dissatisfied
24%
No Opinion
9%

Alliance factor

Vote transfer
ADMK+
DMK+
ADMK
96%
DMK 96 %
MDMK
90%
CONGRESS 86 %
DPI 67% PMK 87 %
LEFT 93 %

Who are Vijaykanth’s supporters?
DMK+ voters
49 %
ADMK+ voters
25 %
Others and new
26 %

Who is winning?

Votes Projected
ADMK+
46%
DMK+
44%
DMDK
5%
Others
5%

Those still unsure
All
6 %
BJP voters
14 %
DMDK voters
13 %
PMK voters
17 %

Anti-incumbency against MLAs
Does sitting MLA deserves re-election
(In %)
Yes
31
No
40
Rest No opinion
-

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