New Delhi: It is anybody’s game in the crucial Tamil Nadu elections this time. A CNN-IBN-Hindu pre-poll survey predicts that it is going to be a very close race between the alliances of the two Dravidian outfits in the 234-member strong Tamil Nadu Assembly.
It has always been a neck-to-neck fight for votes between the two main Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu. The DMK won the elections in 1996 and the AIADMK in 2001. In 2006, it is too close a contest to call.
Preferred Chief Minister
The CNN-IBN-Hindu pre-poll survey has come up with bagful of surprises as far as public mood in the Dravidian heartland is concerned.
According to the survey, the AIADMK will get a 46 per cent share of the votes and the DMK 44 per cent. Actor-politician Vijaykanth’s party, the DMDK, is projected to get 5 per cent of the votes. Such a close fight means that later the field could be open for small groups during government formation.
Even poll pundits won’t risk predicting the exact number of seats the AIADMK and the DMK will win, but both parties might get almost an equal number of seats.
Surprisingly, the survey found that a great majority of people are happy with the AIADMK-led government’s functioning though anti-incumbency will be a factor in the elections. As many as 67 per cent respondents felt satisfied with the government. Only 24 per cent felt dissatisfied.
But the real surprise is the competition between key personalities. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and AIADMK chief J Jayalalitha outperforms DMK chief and former chief minister M. Karunanidhi on the counts of governance, concern for poor, development and ironically controlling corruption as well.
Jayalalitha, despite the incumbency factor, is still the most preferred person for the chief minister’s post. According to the survey, 42 per cent respondents would like Jayalalitha to be the next chief minister. As many as 39 per cent respondents favoured M Karunanidhi for the post. Vijaykanth came a distant third in the preference list.
Vijaykanth, whose party will be the third largest force in the elections, could be the dark horse. He has managed to dent the vote base of almost all parties. According to the survey, 49 per cent of his support comes from the DMK base and 25 from AIADMK base.
CNN-IBN-Hindu pre-poll survey: Complete results
Jayalalitha vs. Karunanidhi
|Better for governance|| |
|Concern for the poor|| |
|Development of the state|| |
|Controlling corruption|| |
Assessment of government performance
Which govt. was better?
|Present ADMK|| |
|Previous DMK|| |
|Both same|| |
|No opinion|| |
Satisfaction with the work of present government
|No Opinion|| |
Who are Vijaykanth’s supporters?
|ADMK+ voters|| |
|Others and new|| |
Who is winning?
Those still unsure
|BJP voters|| |
|DMDK voters|| |
|PMK voters|| |
Anti-incumbency against MLAs
Does sitting MLA deserves re-election
|Rest No opinion|| |