New Delhi: If the committed votes to both the alliances - UPA and NDA - are any indication, the race to the Raisina Hill on Friday turned out to be an edge-of-the-seat photo finish with rapid developments and flip-flops. While UPA with its allies has been able to garner 37.6 per cent of the total votes needed, NDA along with former UPA ally, Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool, and others has already secured 36% of the committed votes so far.
India's electoral college that will vote for a new President on July 19 is made up of 4,896 members - 776 MPs from both the Houses and 4,120 members of the state assemblies. Between them they have 10,98,882 votes and the winning candidate needs at least 549,442 (50%) of these. To calculate the number of voters each legislator represents, the total population of the state is divided by the number of legislatures and then divided by 1,000. For example, each member of Uttar Pradesh assembly represents 208 voters, while an a member from Sikkim represents seven voters. The value of vote of each MP is uniform at 708.
The ruling United Progressive Alliance, in its present form, has 450,555 votes or 41.07 percent of the total. Of this, the Congress alone has 331,855 votes, or 30.3 percent of the total. The UPA allies - among them the Trinamool Congress and the DMK - have 11.04 percent of the vote. The Samajwadi Party, which supports the government from outside, has 6.34 percent of the vote while the Trinamool Congress has 4.4 percent.
37.6% votes for UPA\'s Pranab Mukherjee versus 36% votes that APJ Abdul Kalam may command as an NDA nominee.
Even if UPA goes without Mamata and with Mulayam and Mayawati, the numbers are: UPA - TMC + SP + BSP: 524303. The figure is still below the magic figure of 5,49,442. How do the numbers then stack up? Let's look at the numbers and the possible scenarios emerging right now.
Total Votes: 4,60,191 (42%, including TMC) of which Congress has 3,30,485 votes (The numbers may change after the Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal bypoll results on Friday)
Scenario 1: If Mamata breaks away from the UPA
UPA - TMC: 412142 (37.5%)
Scenario 2: Mayawati's BSP has 43,349 (3.98 percent) of the votes. If UPA manages to get her on board, she almost compensates for Mamata's loss. Mayawati so far has been silent on her support to any combination.
UPA - TMC + BSP: 455491
Scenario 3: UPA without Mamata, but with Mulayam's SP and the Left. Pranab has himself reached out to his friends in the Left who have not made their stand clear so far.
UPA - TMC + SP + Left: 532636 (48.4%)
Scenario 4: If the Scenario 3 combination also manages to rope in the JD(U). After all, JD(U), with its opposition to Kalam's candidature, has proved to be to the NDA what Mamata has been to the UPA. It is in only Scenario 4 that we see a clear majority for the ruling UPA.
UPA - TMC + SP + Left + JD(U): 574789 (52.3%)
Scenario 5: On the other hand, the NDA alone has no numbers to push for its President. The National Democratic Alliance has 27.7 percent of the votes, of which the Bharatiya Janata Party has 21.2 percent. However, politics being a game of uncertainties, any possibility in future is difficult to rule out. Here are the NDA figures:
Total Votes: 304,785 (28%) of which BJP has 2,23,885 votes
Even if NDA manages to get the TMC and SP on board in its push to give a second term as President to APJ Abdul Kalam, the numbers would not help. SP's support to NDA, however, is highly doubtful.
NDA + TMC: 352834 (36%)
Total Votes: 2,62,408 (24%)
In such a scenario, the non-UPA, non-NDA parties may end up playing a crucial role in deciding the next President. Left parties form a large part of this group. The Left, at 4.7%, has more votes than Mamata's TMC. Among the other parties, Mayawati's BSP has 43,349 (3.98 percent) of the votes while Jayalalithaa's AIADMK has 3.3 percent.
Others: 71,498 (6%)