Psephologists not sure if Modi is indeed winning

READING VOTERS' MIND: Yogendra Yadav explains the findings of his Exit Poll on Gujarat elections.

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New Delhi: The results of the CNN-IBN-Indian Express-Divya Bhaskar-CSDS Exit poll on Gujarat Assembly Elections are out. Eminent psephologist Yogendra Yadav led the CSDS team which carried out the post-poll survey.

While all exit polls threw up silimar trends, there is much more to the data obtained from the survey than what the findings say. Yogendra Yadav, the man who has seen it all, explained the findings in a live chat with IBNLive readers on Monday.

Here we reproduce the full transcript of the entire chat.

Nitin: Dear Mr. Yadav, can you please tell me in detail, how you take the sample for Exit Poll?

Yogendra Yadav: I am happy to join all of you on this chat. My apologies for starting a little late.

Birju: Yogendra, your tribe tried hard to project Modiji as losing the election, and now when polling is finally over, you have now knit up stories about how it is Modiji's win and not BJP’s. You never adopted these lines for other parties, which are Maino or Maya or Mulayam-centric. Your shady role in NCERT syllabus is another proof of your utter bias and double talk. Why don’t you seek retirement from your pseudo talk?

Yogendra Yadav: I have chosen to answer your question, for you must not feel that I am avoiding ‘difficult’ questions. Your question is a good example of the kind of reaction people normally have towards Psephology. Much of the discussion is focussed around motives of those who do these polls (I am grateful that you did not talk about my being on the pay rolls of some party!!).

I think that we can have a much more profitable discussion if we focus on analytical and interpretative questions. It seems to me that you did not notice our pre-poll and post-poll surveys carefully, for both of these showed the BJP to be ahead of the Congress.

Rajesh: If you were to vote in Gujarat's elections, would you have voted for Modi?

Yogendra Yadav: I suppose this question is addressed to me in my personal capacity as a citizen. In that case the answer is that I would not. But I try to separate my political views and wishes from my analysis and assessment.

Roshan: Dear Yogendra, now that Modi is all set to come back, what can be done to defame him and make Gujarat safe for the vulnerable sections? Is there hope of using the Tehelka expose or even the affidavits filed by members of his own police to contain and limit the effects of his damaging leadership?

Yogendra Yadav: I would still wait for 23rd to be sure if Mr Modi is indeed winning the elections.

The consensus of exit polls is still not the actual outcome. The political message is that any struggle against communalism cannot take place during the five weeks of election campaign. It has to be carried out politically in the five years in between two elections. This was needed and is still needed, no matter what the outcome is.

Yashhwant Singh Negi: Dear Yadav, why there is so much of obsession with Modi and Gujrat?

After all elections of Himachal is also in process. What about Himachal Elections?

Yogendra Yadav: My gut sense is that the BJP has an upper hand in Himachal, but this is not backed by any data or survey as yet.

Dheeraj: Of the people who refused to tell who they voted for how many were Muslim? This is to find out if they were supporting Congress and there was a fear factor.

Yogendra Yadav: In our post-poll survey, the silence was not confined to or was mainly from Muslims. It was much more widespread cutting across social divide. That is what worried us and made us put a note of caution in our projections.

V K Shrivastava: Dr Yadav, let me first congratulate you for analysing elections after elections and bringing to fore various aspects which effect the outcome of elections. I would like to know your reactions on the following: 1. Do you think the Indian politicians are a matured lot?

Do they really try to garner votes on the basis of their positives rather than their opponent’s negatives? My feeling is that the latter is true. I would like to know your take on that.

2. I find they (read Congress Politicians) are more driven by their greed to grab power by hook or crook rather than actually doing some ground work for development during the time they are not in power. Contemporary history reveals that the political parties (especially Congress) keep on plotting against the party in power to destabilise it.

Is this a sign of healthy democracy? Do you think that if this trend continues the major developing states will sooner or later go the North East ways where the governments are always shaky?

In such a event the focus of the party in power will be more on ensuring its hold on power rather than on developmental issues.

3. Will it not be prudent for major political party like congress to allow the development of second line and local leadership rather than relying solely on the so called aura of the Gandhi family for better electoral results?

Yogendra Yadav: 1. Politicians all over the world are motivated by a desire to win elections, and continue to be in power as long as they can. Indian politicians are no exception. The real issue is the condition that we create for them to be able to realise this desire. If we make it possible for them to do so by breaking all norms, they will do so. If we, the people, make it unrewarding for them to adopt crooked ways they will stop doing so.