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Jul 27, 2013 at 09:24am IST

Regional parties the key as UPA, NDA may fall short of majority in LS polls

New Delhi: With the next Lok Sabha election scheduled to be held in early 2014, both the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) claim that they can form the next government at the Centre. However, according to CNN-IBN-CSDS-The Hindu Election Tracker survey both the UPA and the NDA may fall short of majority after the Lok Sabha elections, with smaller regional parties playing a key role in deciding which alliance will form the next government at the Centre.

The survey shows that the 2014 Lok Sabha election is going to throw up a fractured mandate with neither of two coming anywhere close to the half-way mark of 272 in the 545-member Lok Sabha which has two nominated members.

ALSO SEE Poll tracker: NDA to win 172-180 seats, UPA 149-157, others 147-155

During the Election Tracer debate, various political parties claim that they will win the mandate.

Rajdeep Sardesai: Those figures prima facie show anti-incumbency that after almost 10 years in power particularly with prices rising, with corruption scandals there is a general sense that the Congress and the UPA II is suffering from anti-incumbency. Would you concede that?

ALSO SEE Election Tracker: Narendra Modi leads PM race, Rahul Gandhi second

Abhishek Singhvi: It would require a Nobel Prize in miniaturization for a country like India which is so diverse, so different to really capture in any size sample poll, howsoever large you may make it. That is a basic caveat and these are of course one year before the elections, it can go woefully wrong.

Ravi Shankar Prasad: Your survey is only confirming, what is the extent of disenchantment in the country. Corruption and inflation remain the main issues, along with the country's economy and the extent of insecurity. These are issues quite well known. Your survey is only articulating the real feeling of the people on the ground.

Derek O'Brien: The UPA number is way off the mark. Our understanding is that the UPA will struggle to reach 100. We are fighting these elections not with the Congress, not with the BJP. I would also use your program to appeal to all those regional parties, independent or tied with the UPA and Congress across all the states, which will have a larger vote share as compared to what you have predicted; let's come together with regional aspirations and live those regional aspirations, run a government with these parties.

If the Lok Sabha election is held in July 2013, then the UPA will win 149-157 seats, the NDA 172-180, BSP 15-19, the Left Front 22-28 and the Samajwadi Party 17-21. The other smaller parties, who could prove to be very crucial in the next government formation, could end up with a huge bloc of 147-155 seats.

In the UPA, the Congress will bag 131-139 seats while its allies will only win just 15-21 seats. It is almost a similar situation in the NDA though the BJP is expected to do much better than the Congress. The BJP may end up with 156-164 seats and its partners could bring another 13-19 MPs.

Regional parties who will in all probability play a crucial role in the next government's formation are likely to come up with a huge contingent of MPs. The Trinamool Congress will win 23-27 seats, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) 16-20, Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) 15-19, Biju Janata Dal (BJD) 12-16, YSR Congress 11-15, Rashtriya Janata Dal 8-12, Telugu Desam Party 6-10 and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi 5-9 seats.