Click to play videoOn Tuesday, three states go to the polls. Maharashtra, Haryana and Arunachal Pradesh will vote for their state Assemblies. The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance faces its first electoral test after its return to power through General Elections this year. What will be the shape of the state Assemblies in these three states, who wins, who loses and what are the X-factors that may affect the outcome. CNN-IBN's special show Face The Elections attempts to cut below the surface and get answers to those questions.
On the panel to discuss the issue were Editor-in-chief of the daily Loksatta Kumar Ketkar; the Editor of IBN Lokmat, Nikhil Wagle; National Affairs Editor of CNN-IBN Diptosh Majumdar and the Director of the Institute of Development and Communication in Chandigarh, Pramod Kumar.
Is this the messiest election that Maharashtra has ever seen?
Experts say that the state of Maharashtra is badly fragmented in terms of vote share in the current elections.
The NCP had the largest number of Assembly seats in the last elections. It partnered with the Congress that was at number two then.
"It is the most fragmented election that I have ever come across in the last 35 to 40 years," admitted Kumar Ketkar. "This is in fact the first election in which not one single issue, not one single leader or even a single party is able to dominate the entire state of Maharashtra. And therefore, what we are able to see is not a single election but 288 elections."
Ketkar flayed the media's blind attitude of banding all of Mumbai together and not understanding that the city is not one homogenous constituency. The way the voters of elite localities such as Colaba, Peddar Road etc vote is completely different from the way Meera Road or Bhayander suburbs of the same city votes.
Ketkar also pointed out that Mumbai and Thane cannot be the standard units to measure Maharashtra's trends and performances as this was also the most fractured Assembly election which promises no single party win. Ketkar categorically avoided any pre-poll predictions but said the Congress-NCP alliance will certainly find the going tough. The General Election results cannot become measures for Assembly elections, Ketkar pointed, adding that the two have completely different parameters and perspectives.
What is that one issue that has potential to rock voting trend?
Nikhil Wagle felt the party system seems to be failing in this election. The Marathi manoos issue seems to be a part of urban areas like Mumbai, Thane and Nasik. "If you visit Vidarbha, the issue is different," said Wagle. "About electricity and water, the entire state of Maharashtra seems to be crying. The most important issue is the failure of the Opposition to cash in on the failure of the ruling coalition.”
Are elections getting more and more localised?
Voter apathy is another factor that could affect the results, feel experts.
"This is one of the most issues-less election that I have ever seen," said Diptosh Majumdar. "There seems to be a belief amongst voters not only in Mumbai, Pune but even beyond probably that life goes on despite or in spite of the government," added Majumdar.
He also said that even if you see a pattern in a particular region, the six regions of the state have their own different patterns now.
Is it slowly turning out to be a battle of wits that shows the electorate saying its constituency and its issues matter the most?
Experts feel the state of Maharashtra lacks the plank of a national agenda. Majumdar felt that the only thing that unites all of Maharashtra at the moment is perhaps the level of cynicism. People seem to have resigned to the fate that no matter what government comes to power, little will change on the ground.
Will voter cynicism change any polling results?<.b>
Is there a disconnect between the voters and the leaders?
"Well, that cynicism is definitely there but I do not think that cynicism will prevent them from voting," said Ketkar. "The cynicism is there because neither party nor any front has been able to connect itself to the political mass," said Ketkar.
He called the election as a strange one, saying that it is one political set-up or the political mass against the people. "Multiple anti-incumbencies are operating. The Mumbai-Thane corporations are run by BJP-Shiv Sena, in the Assembly, it is the Congress-NCP in power. Therefore any anti-incumbency factor will hit both, the BJP-Shiv Sena as well as the Congress-NCP," declared Ketkar.
Dynasty politics to the fore
Whether it is the daughter of Congress strongman Sushil Kumar Shinde, Chhagan Bhujbal in Nasik or BJP’s Nitin Gadkari in Nagpur, certain families seem to have taken over certain areas in terms of vote banks.
But Majumdar refused to accept that this phenomenon was Maharashtra-specific. He compared it to the satraps of Madhya Pradesh and added, "It is a nationwide phenomenon where the children of politicians are now finding it easier to get into politics."
The disconnect between the civil societies and political parties seems to be complete. But Majumdar pointed out another factor. The Maharashtra electorate may have tired of having one government in power for 10 straight years.
“Here in Maharashtra, we are not able to see anti-incumbency on the surface at all,” he added.
Can the MNS play a spoiler for BJP-Shiv Sena and thus be the X-factor?
“The MNS will damage the BJP-Shiv Sena combine and will damage it in at least 25 to 30 seats," said Wagle.
He said the voters seem to be on a hunt for a credible alternative to the failures that were dished out by the BJP-Shiv Sena and the ruling Congress. With Raj Thackeray's popularity rising, it seems like that slot is waiting to be filled up by the MNS leader. "Whether he will be successful or not, we will have to watch," said Wagle.
Is Raj Thackeray that X-factor that could sway the polls?
Has Raj Thackeray dented the vote banks enough to inflict damage on larger parties with his insider-outsider issues?
Ketkar said, "Raj Thackeray has been able to create the space, but the question is why has he been able to create that space? It is because of the disconnect of the Congress party with the youth, particularly with the Marathi youth as Nikhil Wagle pointed out."
MNS is the representative of the anti-incumbency, felt Ketkar.
That anti-incumbency is getting split and therefore a breather to the Congress-NCP which would have otherwise been a neck-and-neck battle for votes, felt Majumdar.
Will Haryana be a one-sided story?
Congress hopes to break the jinx in Haryana. No incumbent government has got a win in that state since 1977.
In the Assembly elections of 2005, the Congress won 67, Chautala's Lok Dal won nine, BJP two, NCP and BSP one each and the Independents 11 seats.
In 2009's General Assembly elections, the Bhajan Lal-led Janhit Congress took away the edge from what would have been a complete sweep of seats for the Congress in the state. There was a clear split in the Opposition's votes.
Does this mean the Congress is all set to return to power in Haryana?
Pramod Kumar felt that the exit of the three Lals (Bhajan Lal, Devi Lal and Bansi Lal) had created a political vacuum in the state's arena. It also allowed the Congress party to find a groove and get a firm toe-hold with the BJP finding itself as a mere appendage. Kumar pointed out that absence of no real political issues and no competitive politics could make it an easier run for Congress in Haryana.
With one big party set to dominate with small other parties in fray, he felt, "It is almost a kind of pre-mid sixties politics that one witnesses here."
It has therefore become difficult for Opposition to dislodge the Congress government. Pramod Kumar pointed out that the number of women candidates is much higher in Haryana. Ironically, the women of Haryana had initiated a movement long ago to take the state ahead in developmental terms, but that seems to have died out.
Which way will Arunachal Pradesh vote?
The 2004 Assembly polls depict that the Congress had won 34, the BJP had won 9, the NCP and Arunachal Congress two each and the Independents had won 13. The current situation is that the Congress has just gotten stronger as a section of the Opposition BJP and Arunachal Congress here seems to have merged with the Congress party. The eastern-most state of the country show the Opposition is divided.
"Those 34 Congress (seats) completely swallowed the BJP and the NCP and became 45 and the 13 Independents as well as the Arunachal Congress supported the government from the outside. So basically, in a 60-member House, you did not have an Opposition. It was a strange scenario in Arunachal for the past few years. Arunachal Pradesh will probably vote to find an Opposition," said Majumdar.
Majumdar also pointed out that the potential chief minister too has none to fight as he has already won unopposed.
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