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Apr 01, 2014 at 09:51pm IST

Tamil Nadu tracker: AIADMK 15-21 seats, DMK 10-16, BJP alliance 6-10

The ruling AIADMK led by Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa continues her lead in Tamil Nadu. According to CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti-The Week national election tracker the AIADMK is projected to win 15-21 seats in the Lok Sabha elections according to the projections by Chennai Mathematical Institute Director Rajeeva Karandikar.

The main rival DMK is expected to get 10-16 seats and the BJP-MDMK alliance is likely to get 6-10 seats in the elections. The isolated Congress is not expected to open its account in this election in the state with 39 seats.

Vote share

The AIADMK is likely to get 32 per cent votes in a multi-corner contest. The DMK is expected to get 23 per cent votes. The BJP-MDMK alliance is likely to garner 22 per cent votes. The Congress 12 per cent, AAP 2 per cent and the others are expected to get 9 per cent of the votes.

Region wise break up

North Tamil Nadu is witnessing a close contest between AIADMK - DMK and BJP. AIADMK is leading in the Cauvery delta, the DMK is in the second place. In Western TN, the AIADMK is leading and the Congress is doing quiet well and in southern TN, it is a close fight between AIADMK, DMK and the BJP-MDMK alliance.

Interestingly, the majority women prefer AIDAMK over other parties. The men prefer the BJP alliance over other parties. 39 per cent women prefer AIADMK and 27 per cent men prefer the BJP alliance.

According to survey findings, a large part of the BJP+ vote seems to be coming from the youngest voters; AIADMK voters are mostly the elderly. 31 per cent of the people in the age group of 18-25 years are favouring the BJP alliance and 36 per cent of the people in the age group of 46 plus years are backing the AIADMK.

What are the Vanniyar and Dalit voting preferences in the context of the recent Vanniyar-Dalit clashes?

The Vanniyars seem to be mostly with the BJP+ whereas the Dalits are split between ADMK and DMK alliance. 36 per cent Vanniyars are with the BJP alliance and 33 per cent Dalits are backing the AIADMK. 30 per cent of Dalits are with the DMK.

Modi leads PM race

BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi is leading the PM race in Tamil Nadu followed by chief minister J Jayalalithaa. 24 per cent respondents prefer Modi, 17 per cent prefer Jayalalithaa and 9 per cent prefer Rahul Gandhi for the post of PM. Most people are of the opinion that Jayalalithaa will make a good PM, if she becomes one, including many BJP alliance voters. Overall 37 per cent feel that she will be a good PM. Among the AIADMK supporters 72 per cent feel that she will be a good PM. Among the BJP voters, 35 per cent feel the same about her. Overall 33 per cent respondents are confident that she will make it to the top post this time and 37 per cent feel that she won't.

There is a 50 per cent Support for Jayalalithaa's decision to release convicts in the former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi assassination case. There is a 46 per cent high net satisfaction with the state government and minus 7 per cent with the Centre. The anti-UPA sentiments are also very high across TN.

Top 5 voting issues in Tamil Nadu

Price rise - 20 per cent

Electricity supply - 13 per cent

Corruption - 12 per cent

Unemployment - 5 per cent

Water Supply - 4 per cent