Click to play videoViolence-free polls, high voter turnout and now a new alliance - India's most turbulent state Jammu and Kashmir is back to business after years of insurgency.
That's perhaps the message the establishment is trying to send across to Pakistan engulfed in the post-26/11 war hysteria.
But the bigger question is how will these results pan out on the national scene? What do individual players stand to gain and what would the separatist forces do from here onwards?
Those were among the questions debated and discussed on a CNN-IBN show moderated by Editor-in-Chief Rajdeep Sardesai. The panel comprised all the big players of the state – Farooq and Omar Abdullah of the National Conference, the party which will form the government probably in an alliance with Congress, Ghulam Nabi Azad and Prithviraj Chavan of the Congress, former VC of Jammu University, Amitabh Mattoo; CNN-IBN National Affairs Editor Diptosh Majumdar and Indian Express J-K bureau chief Muzammil Jaleel.
Following is the gist of the discussion that centred on finding answers to the five big questions the verdict has posed.
IS AN NC-CONGRESS GOVT THE BEST BET FOR J&K?
While National Conference had the similar no. of seats in 2002 but refused to form the government. Farooq clarified NC’s position, “Last time we didn't get absolute majority and so thought we must stya in power. We have got good seats this time and so we are ready to deliver. We will form the next govt. We went to people with a sense of development," he said.
He maintained the National Conference had always had a good relationship with Congress and it was not a recent development. Mattoo asked him if a different kind of politics - that of a grand coalition - was possible. "It's a good thought but I don't think it will work," he said.
Diptosh Majumdar analysed while Congress-NC was a workable coalition, it was the PDP and the BJP who had actually gained seats in the election. Experts, therefore and that they were, therefore, pretty much in the reckoning - especially BJP on the national scene. Farooq said NC can work with the disparities.
It was also seen as National Conference's desperation to get to power that made them go at government formation. "But people now want us and they want us to deliver," he said. Farooq also made clear that it was he who was the CM candidate. "Finally, Omar has to take over. He is the younger fellow. I am sure he wouldn't mind that now," he said, adding, "I have always being in interested in national-role politics. If the need arises, I wil do it. For now, I need to work for people now," he said.
Omar Abdullah said the choice for CM wasn't surprising at all and that it was a settled issue. "That big step should have been made when the campaign was started. It was done in Dr Abdullah's name and the results are here for you to see," he said, adding it wasn't the question of like or dislike, it was just a decision. Omar also dismissed Mattoo's theory of a grand allliance and said it was utopian not realistic. "If anything that would set fire to J-K, it'll be such a government," he said.
Congress in-charge of the state Prithviraj Chavan joined the debate and indicated the party would be glad to ally with the NC. "The final decision has not yet been taken," he said. Farooq said he was hopeful NC and Congress would be able to work together.
Ghulam Nabi Azad, too, joined the debate and congratulated Omar Abdullah on his win. He said the party will decide the future course of action soon. "If left to myself, I would choose the party whose national credentials and secular credentials are known. Had BJP been secular they would have been ruling the country for the past 30 years. If they have been rejected across the country, it is because of their communal attitude," he said.
IS THE RISE OF BJP A SIGN OF JAMMU ASSERTING ITSELF?
CNN-IBN: You've done very well in Jammu but have you in the process only widened the divide between Jammu and Kashmir, between Hindu and Muslim?
Jaitley: Well, let me tell you I don't think that's the correct way of looking at it. I think this result in Jammu particularly is a pointer and its a pointer to all political parties that regions like Jammu and also Leh and Ladakh are within the state. They have been feeling discriminated for a very long time and the manner in which this region has voted, this is a protest vote against this polarization, sorry against that discrimination.
CNN-IBN: But Mr Jaitley, you have in a sense become an untouchable now for all the parties of the valley. Doesn’t that trouble you?
Jaitley: With the kind of ideological divide that we have with the PDP and the National Congress there's no question within BJP of supporting these two parties but at the same time, the BJP strength in the region has only proved one thing. We are going to be a reasonably large group in the Assembly and we are going to be a strong nationalist group in the Assembly. We stand for the development of whole state including the Kashmir valley but not at the cost of discriminating other regions like Jammu, Leh and Ladakh therefore those concerns which have been missed out in the past are the concerns which have to be voiced by us. We understand the sentiments in the Valley, similarly the parties in the valley must understand the sentiments of Jammu region.
CNN-IBN: But the BJP is a national party. Don’t you think as a responsible national party you need to do more to reach out to people in the Kashmir valley as well?
Jaitley: I think in the national interest, we need a balancing act and the balancing act is that the valley needs jobs. The valley needs economic development. I must pay a tribute to the voters in the valley who ignored the boycott calls and voted for bijli, paani and jobs. But at the same time, those must cover at the cost of Leh, Ladakh and Jammu. They must not snatch away the shares. There must be a fair and equitable distribution of resources. We are not opposed to development of valley. That must take place but not at the cost of Jammu. Jammu can no longer be the step child.
CNN-IBN: The big question though: going into a general election year, are you seeing Jammu as a laboratory of sorts that you will now try to take it to a national level by raking up emotional issues that appeal to your traditional Hindu vote.
Jaitley: I don’t think the Amarnath movement was a Hindu-Muslim divide. It was a divide between the nationalist and the separatist. It was a divide where Muslims in the Jammu region strongly supported the Amarnath Sangharsh Samiti. I don’t think it was correct to say it was a Hindu-Muslim divide. It was a contrived issue by the separatist and the Hurriyat conference.
CNN-IBN: Any message to Dr Abdullah?
Jaitley: My suggestion really would be that Dr Abdullah is a very experienced politician. He commands a lot of stature and respect and I am sure he has a balancing act between the valley and two other states. With his experience and his ability to reach out to people he will try to do that. I wish him all the best if he does become the CM. We will be politically opposed to NC but if he tries to reach out and work against the discrimination of Jammu region, certainly we would welcome his approach.
Majumdar said the distinction between Jammu and Kashmir shouldn't be made by the politcians. Congress' Chavan while admitting that the party lost out in Jammu said the BJP had succeeded in its communal agenda. "But I think it's a temporary anger," he said.
HAS NC LOST ITS MONOPOLY OVER KASHMIR VALLEY TO THE PDP?
Majumdar said once, there was a politics in J-K where you could win just 12 pc votes and prosper. NC did very well for itself with that. But this time around, development has won. The biggest proof o fthat is the high turnout despite the boycott call by separatists. Ghulam Nabi Azad agreed the expectations were there and said he should take credit for it as he actualised the dream of a number of development projects.
Here is what PDP's president Mehbooba Mufti said.
CNN-IBN: Mehbooba Mufti, do you see yourself now as the number one party of the Kashmir valley?
Mehbooba Mufti: Well, we definitely have improved our tally from the last time and that is a very good indication that people have liked our performance and also the agenda that we had put forward to them. So it is a positive thing.
CNN-IBN: But the feeling is that you have grown by flirting with separatism, soft separatism is what it is being called.
Mehbooba Mufti: The policy we adopted was the healing touch policy, which was appreciated no less by then prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee who for the first time addressed 40,000 people in our tenure. And when he went back he said there is no other policy than the heal and touch policy to deal with the Kashmir situation so if you call that soft separatism that has brought in Jammu and Kashmir then, today 60-70 per cent people came to vote because of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Congress performance. So, if Muzaffarabad road, trade and resolution of Kashmir problem are called soft separatism then yes we are for that. You can call us by any name.
CNN-IBN: But at the end of the day, it is the National Conference (NC) that has emerged as the number one party in the state and the Congress seems to be inclined to go with them. In the end, you have lost out perhaps in the post poll alliance politics.
Mehbooba Mufti: We very much respect the verdict if the Congress decides to go with the NC then and form a coalition. How can we stop them if they feel like they should do that? But we had a very good coalition going for six year. It was a good experience, it was something that was appreciated not only at the state level but also at the national and international level. It paid huge dividends here and we brought huge changes in the situation. If the Congress thinks they can better their performance with NC then can opt for them. It is their decision.
CNN-IBN: What is your message to Omar Abullah?
Mehbooba Mufti: Whatever role we have to play we have a policy, an agenda to follow. I would say best of luck to Omar Abdullah and at the same time I would also like to request him to take the peace process forward that we had started with the Congress. This will be my message to him.
CNN-IBN: Must ask you one last question. If both you and NC represent the aspirations of the Kashmir valley, why don’t you come closer together instead of moving further apart?
Mehbooba Mufti: I think we are a party with a policy, with a programme and even when we came together with the Congress we had the CMP(Common Minimum Programme). We don’t come together just for the sake of power, so we have an agenda to follow and I don’t think our agenda is something which the NC will be comfortable with.
WHAT HAPPENS TO THE NOTION OF 'AZAADI'?
Indian Express bureau chief Muzammil Jaleel said it was a disturbing trend as everyone thought it was a vote for status quo in Kashmir. "I think no. New Delhi has a moral highground and this is actually the time to engage separatists. The sentiment is alive and it's the right time to get them involved. We have no idea as to what will happen in next two months and separatism is not over in Kashmir," he said.
Mattoo agreed and said it was important to reach out to all sentiments of alienation - whether in Kashmir, Jammu or Ladakh. Majumdar said the election was not in black and white. "It's an election in gray given the fragile equilibrium in the state. But importantly, the separatists' call has been ignored. So the Centre must reach out to them," he said.
WHAT ARE THE EXPECTATIONS OF J&K's YOUNG GENERATION?
This election process has not only surprised the Separatists but also shocked them. The high voter turnout has shredded to bits their call to boycott the elections. And with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) peddling soft separatism through its self-rule document and the NC calling for autonomy plus, their agenda stands hijacked as well.
But no matter which party comes to power, the youth has a clear agenda for the government that takes over for the next six years.
“We want Omar Abdullah as the CM. All over the world, the youth has been voting for change, here also we want someone young and energetic; someone who can bring change,” says a young Kashmiri voter Noman Riyaz.
“We cannot neglect the fact that the people turned up in large numbers. They have not only voted for issues like bijli (electricity), sadak (road) and pani (water) but also the resolution of the Kashmir issue,” says another young Kashmiri voter Nida Sheikh.
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