Click to play videoThe Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Sunday created history by getting a foothold in South India. When the final results of Karnataka Assembly elections came out, the BJP had 110 seats under its belt with Congress taking the second spot with 80 seats and Janata Dal (Secular) a distant third with just 28 seats.
For a party that was primarily seen having its base in North and Western India, it's now time to be truly called a national party. In Karnataka, too, the BJP expanded its base from being a Lingayat party to include the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes and in the process, reaped rich electoral dividends.
In the SC/ST reserved constituencies, seats BJP won 33 seats compared to 13 last time with the Congress which won 37 seats in 2004 left with 34. The JD(S) was down to just eight from 26 with other getting four compared to three seats last time. As BJP leader B S Yeddyurappa gets ready to become the next chief minister of the state, CNN-IBN’s Face the Nation debated the issue: Is the Karnataka verdict a vote for stability?
The panelists included eminent historian and Bangalore resident Ramachandra Guha, Lankesh Patrike Editor and another Bangalore resident Gauri Lankesh, Member of Parliament and Editor-in-Chief Pioneer Chandan Mitra, Editor-in-Chief of Outlook Vinod Mehta and Congress spokesperson Manish Tiwari. Sagarika Ghose moderated the debate.
The first question asked was: Will the BJP be able to provide good governance?
Ramachandra Guha started the ball rolling by pointing that the BJP not having a single Muslim candidate in the elections was a cause of worry.
“That worry is always there when the BJP is in power. Out of the 224 constituencies not a single Muslim was put by the BJP. On the other hand they minimised what for them has been a very major campaign, which is to convert a multi-faith shrine in Baba Budangiri Hills into a Hindu shrine. Also soon after they won, they announced that they are going to announce special programmes for SCs, STs and minorities. So they are speaking with two voices. On one hand they recognise that in a plural heterogeneous society hardline Hindutva will not be appreciated. On the other hand the RSS hardcore might want the hardline Hindutva. So I think there is an element of confusion in the BJP. One hopes that the confusion will resolve itself in favour of more plural, democratic politics,” Guha said.
Gauri Lankesh very categorically answered that with the BJP’s rise, Karnataka was in for troubled times.
“I have no love lost for the Congress or the Janata Dal but I think in Karnataka’s history today is a really, really black day because BJP, I think, is extremely dangerous for the state. As for Yeddyurappa, his image as a son of soil and having led a lot of farmers’ movement is all gibberish. He has never ever led any farmers’ movement to any successful conclusion. He is a hardcore Hindutva person. The BJP may have come to power on their own now but for 20 months they shared power and whatever they unleashed then was total Hindutva politics in Karnataka. I think Yeddyurappa is going to be the biggest damage to Karnataka’s history and cultural and communal harmony fabric of the state,” Gauri remarked.
Chandan Mitra was, however, quick to defend the BJP and gave a strong reply to Gauri’s scathing criticism of the party and Yeddyurappa.
“My first response is that people are very sore losers. They have lost the elections, and how can you say it is a black day for Karnataka, this is terrible or that this is a disaster. People have voted and elected Yeddyurappa. You have to accept the verdict of the people with some humility. You cannot have this kind of undemocratic and autocratic attitude. This is absolutely ridiculous. The BJP has won on a very clear-cut inclusive platform and a lot of good things are going to happen to Karnataka, which has gone through a very bad patch of instability. I see that really good days have finally come,” Mitra said.
Guha was balanced in his comments and said that the will of the people must be respected.
“Of course it must be respected. I think it (BJP’s win) is also a commentary against dynastic politics. I think it is much more a negative vote. It is a vote for stability and it is not just the dynastic politics of the JD(S). It is also a commentary on the Congress, which is confused and directionless because the orders come for the centre. The Congress again made the mistake of not projecting a chief ministerial candidate and the BJP was smart enough to do that. But I would ask Chandan a question. Why is that the BJP could not nominate a single candidate from the minorities when the minorities are more than 20 per cent of the population. That is worrisome. I am glad that now they are at least symbolically saying that they will have special programme for the minorities. But I think there should be some introspection within the BJP. There are two voices here. There is a more accommodating voice and there is a hardline voice,” Guha added.
Where does the Congress go from here?
Mitra responded to Guha’s comments by pointing out that political parties need to be realistic when fighting elections.
“Guha has a valid question but it has to be seen in perspective. First his figure of 20 per cent Muslim population in Karnataka is wrong. It is 12 per cent. Secondly the Muslims have by and large have been traditional voters of non-BJP parties. It is very difficult and it is fact that it is very difficult for BJP to put up a Muslim candidate and get that person elected. So sometimes you have to take a realistic appraisal and in the course of the campaign Yeddyurappa announced that he will ensure that Muslim nominees are taken up in Legislative Council and a ministerial berth is organised. This is the way BJP has gone about in various other states. It is nothing unusual. So there is no problem of intention and as long as the end result is good how does it really matter which method you really employ to reach that positive goal,” Mitra explained.
Outlook Editor-in-Chief Vinod Mehta said the Karnataka verdict was a stinging indictment of the ay the Congress party functions and now it was the time for the party to introspect.
“First of all the Congress cannot continue to be in denial. Whatever way you look at it is a magnificent victory for the BJP. What the people of Karnataka have done is that they have not given a fractured mandate. They have given a majority to the BJP. You can say the secular vote got divided, they got sympathy vote. Why didn’t the people punish the BJP for its association with Deve Gowda and sons? Why didn’t the Congress benefit from the five years of stable government that it gave under SM Krishna? The undercurrent was for stability so why didn’t the Congress benefit. Congress is very good at making tall claims but it is not a very good party when it comes to introspection. There is room for introspection. The Congress should not say that Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi couldn’t be blamed. Of course they are responsible. The Central High Command is responsible. This state was waiting to be won. Why did they lose it?” he asked.
Gauri pointed out that Congress lost, as it did not have plan.
“I would like to understand the stability factor. Being a true democrat I don’t think stability was the main factor. Majority always breeds dictatorship or other kinds of undemocratic tendencies. Second thing is that Congress never had any plan. They did not have a core leadership, or a chief ministerial candidate. I would certainly not be proud of Yeddyurappa. I don’t see any qualities in him to be proud of,” she said.
Sagarika Ghose pointed out one analyst has said that Karnataka is a very deideologised state and ideological parties don’t work there. Even the BJP and Left ideologies are not there in Karnataka. It is all about caste and money. Do you thing BJP will lose its ideological potency that it has in North India and Gujarat, she asked Guha.
“The BJP will do different things in different context depending what it sees as useful for it. So in Karnataka it is de-ideologised. It tried to create a southern Ayodhya in Baba Budangiri Hills and failed. So it played the stability card. Even Narendra Modi was subdued. In some other state it will play some other card. Coming to Congress if they had won this election, Mr Rahul Gandhi would have got all the credit. Congress has now lost but no blame will accrue to Rahul. So they have to get away from the obsession from the family. All is the good is because of the family. All the damage has nothing to do with the family. So they will have to get rid of the dominance of the family,” he explained.
Congress Spokesperson Manish Tiwari was quick to defend his party and its President Sonia Gandhi.
“The Congress President has been leading that party for the last 10 years. There are certain places where due to local reasons there have been reverses, but at other places we have won. Biggest victory has been the formation of UPA at the Centre. Congress has been very consultative and to say that we have cut out local leaders is not correct. I think he (Guha saying that Congress lost because of dynastic politics) is absolutely off the mark in that assessment. We lost there because of local reasons. Also the victories of margins have been small and different regions have voted differently,” Tiwari clarified.
Is stability the primary concern?
Guha once again came out with positive response and said, “I am glad that it is single-party rule. But expectation of a city voter or a rural voter may be different from a corporate. We need a decentralised development. The coverage of Karnataka has focused too much on certain industries in Bangalore. It has to see the state as a whole. Mumbai Karnataka and Hyderabad Karnataka have been at a disadvantage because of Bangalore obsession.”
Gauri, however, continued her tirade against the BJP and its policies.
“No whether it is SM Krishna or Yeddyurappa it makes much of a difference. As Govindacharya had said recently both of are pro-rich and anti-poor. Both are pro-corporate and not for the farming sector. Neither Congress nor BJP mention anything like education for all. Basically it will again be what Narayana Murthy says whereas the rural sector will be ignored,” Gauri said.
Vinod Mehta was optimistic that BJP would make full use of the historic mandate.
“This is a historic moment for BJP and they have got a foothold in the south. They will not squander this opportunity. I think there are very sensible people in the BJP. They have got a historic opportunity to consolidate their position. I think we need to give BJP time. I am not a great BJP supporter but I am surprised that we are writing off this government even before it is sworn in,” Mehta reasoned.
When asked if the BJP in Karnataka was behaving like a regional party and that its state leaders were not in the Sangh mould, Mitra buttressed his point by saying that BJP has been focusing of problems faced by the people.
“I think there is a great misconception is sections of media that the core of the BJP is of those people who have horns and who keep shouting offensive slogans. BJP has been focusing on bijli, sadak, paani (Electricity, road and water). During Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s six-year reign there was no talk of Hindutva. BJP has a core ideology of Hindutva and BJP people are proud of it. But that does not mean that you shout Hindutva from rooftops every time. India is a federal country and every state has its own character. You must tailor you campaign. So BJP and its allies have more state under then and it has emerged as a national party by accepting the federal character on Indian polity,” he said.
Tiwari was, however, in no mood to take thing lying down and replied, “A leopard doesn’t change its spot and with the BJP it is not even a leopard, it a very wily chameleon. As far as NREGA, Sarwa Shiksha Abhiyan or farm loan waiver is concerned, those were steps taken by UPA government to alleviate distress in agricultural sector.”
Mehta was asked if with Lok Sabha elections coming up, a shift would take place in national psychology and was the UPA now a lame duck government?
“I am not sure if UPA is lame duck but certainly the BJP has got tail wind behind it. Karnataka is a frontline Indian state. Congress must ask itself. Why does it keep losing state after state? Is the policy of no chief ministerial candidate a good policy? You must analyse what is going wrong,” he said.
What impact will Karnataka results have on Lok Sabha polls?
“Regarding impact on Lok Sabha polls, I wouldn’t take Karnataka results in isolation. The succession of defeats that the government has faced carries its own tale. After taking a series of populist measures and inspite of that Congress is losing election. So as Vinod Mehta says, Congress must be doing something wrong. Basically the country is gearing up for change as people feel that this government at Centre has not been able to achieve anything. It is a hostage to its allies. It is being constantly being pulled down by the Left which is like both Opposition and a part of the government. I think the time has definitely come people feel for a change. It is just a few months away and the government is already lame duck and is just waiting to demit office,” Mitra said.
But Mehta disagreed saying, “I think it is too early to say that this is a lame duck government. Yin the last months of power any government will not take radical decisions. Congress must look at its structure. The fours states that are going to polls soon, the Congress is in terrible shape.”
In her parting remarks, too, Gauri’s did not let go of the change of criticising the BJP.
“On one hand BJP talks of implementing Narendra Modi model here. What does Modi model of development really mean? There are more farmers suicide in Gujarat than in Karnataka. Male-female ratio in Gujarat is also bad. Here Yeddyurappa says he will have a Muslim on one side and a Dalit on the other side. But over the last two years they have been deprived of many things,” she added
Guha pointed out that now the momentum was with the BJP but to reap its full electoral benefit the party must include all sections of the society in its fold.
“It is a major boost for the BJP. In terms of Lok Sabha it will be interesting to see their strategy. I was particularly impressed by a remark Nitish Kumar made where he said don’t stress the Gujarat model of development. Stress the Bihar model of development because the Bihar model of development is inclusive, directly implying that the Gujarat model was exclusive. It was exclusive of the minorities, exclusive of the underclass. I think introspection is also needed in the BJP. Can they cut their umbilical cord to the RSS and VHP? Can they learn from their allies like Nitish Kumar and have amore inclusive and plural economic policy?” he asked
That final word came from Tiwari who admitted that thing were not in Congress’ favour.
“Definitely it is a time to introspect. Congress will introspect and find out the reasons why this happened. Let me also reiterate the point that the Central government completes some of the programmes in the Common Minimum Programme,” Tiwari concluded.
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