The math behind UPA's survival in Parliament

New Delhi: As the Left announced its decision to break with the UPA, the focus shifted back to the number game in Parliament.

The Samajwadi Party was the first off the block, announcing that its entire 39 member parliamentary group was intact and would vote with the UPA in a confidence vote.

There had earlier been reports that at least half a dozen SP MPs could break away from the party, but so far only one MP, Jayaprakash, has said that he would vote against the deal.

"Every member will give his vote to save the Government and the deal. Those who claim the deal is anti-minority are in fact insulting the minorities,” SP General Secretary Amar Singh said.

The support of at least 37 MPs would take the UPA, which has 225 MPs, to 262 MPs, just 10 short of the halfway mark of 272 in the 543-member Assembly.

The focus for the UPA then is on the smaller parties and at least two of them – Deve Gowda's JDS with two MPs and Ajit Singh's RLD with three MPs – indicated they would go with the Congress.

Meanwhile, former Karnataka chief minister Kumaraswmay said, “In politics there no friends or enemies,” while Ajit Singh added, “I will vote in favour of the nuclear deal. No specific demands. We will discuss with our party men and find out about the political climate in UP and about the timing of election and alliances.”

Other smaller parties like the National Conference with one MP, the MDMK with four MPs and the TRS with three MPs were also potential UPA targets.

“If the PM officially says that UPA will support Telangana raj then we would support the Government,” TRS chief K Chandrashekhara Rao said.

The Akalis with eight MPs had also indicated that they could consider backing a Sikh Prime Minister, but the opposition NDA maintained that it was united and would embarrass the UPA in Parliament.

"After the Left has withdrawn support, the UPA has become a minority Government so the PM should go in for a vote of confidence,” BJP President Rajnath Singh said.

The trust vote in Parliament is likely to take place in the second half of July and while the numbers may be tilting towards the UPA, none of its floor managers in Parliament can afford to take any chances at this moment. Which is why the next few days are likely to see intense bargaining among political parties and a fight for every single MP's vote.

NEXT PAGE: Chronology of politics over the Indo-US nuclear deal

Following is the chronology of politics over the Indo-US nuclear deal:

July 18, 2005: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and US President George Bush agree on a nuclear deal in Washington.

March 2, 2006: India and the US sign the nuclear agreement during Bush's visit to New Delhi.

March 11, 2006: Communist Party of India attacks Government during a special discussion in Lok Sabha terming the accord as an 'unequal' treaty and one which would take India to the 'stable of US global strategy of containing China and Russia'.

July 28, 2006: The Left parties demand threadbare discussion on the issue in Parliament followed by a statement by either the Speaker or Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

November 16, 2006: US Senate passes the Indo-US nuclear deal.

August 3, 2007: India, US unveil the 123 Agreement.

August 13, 2007: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh makes a suo motu statement on the deal in Parliament.

August 17, 2007: Communist Party of India-Marxist general secretary Prakash Karat says that the 'honeymoon (with government) may be over but the marriage can go on'.

September 4, 2007: UPA-Left committee to discuss nuclear deal set up.

February 25, 2008: Left parties say the UPA would have to choose between the deal and its government's stability.

March 3, 2008: Left parties warn of 'serious consequences' if the civilian nuclear deal with the US is operationalised.

March 6, 2008: Left parties set a deadline asking the government to make it clear by March 15 whether it intended to proceed with the nuclear deal or drop it.

March 7, 2008: CPI writes to the prime minister, warns of withdrawal of support if government goes ahead with the Indo-US nuclear deal.

March 8, 2008: The CPI-M says the government should drop the nuclear deal if the UPA-Left Committee does not approve it.

March 14, 2008: CPI-M says the Left parties will not be responsible if the government falls over the nuclear deal.

April 23, 2008: Government says it will seek the sense of the House on the 123 Agreement before it is taken up for ratification by the American Congress.