Jan 24, 2014 at 02:33am IST

UP poll tracker: BJP set for massive win, bag 41-49 seats, BSP 10-16

Lucknow: All eyes are on Uttar Pradesh (UP) which has the largest number of Lok Sabha seats. The state has 80 Lok Sabha seats and has always played a major role in government formation at the Centre. As the Narendra Modi wave gathers momentum in North, Central and West India, UP also seems to be going the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) way once again after 15 years.

Riding high on the Modi charisma, the BJP is likely to score big and win 41-49 seats according to the seat projections by Chennai Mathematical Institute's Director Professor Rajeeva Karandikar. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is projected to win 10-16, Samajwadi Party (SP) 8-14, Congress 4-10 and other parties may bag 2-6.

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According to Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll, the BJP is likely to get 38 per cent votes in UP making it the single largest party in the state. In a multi-corner contest, 38 per cent vote share can lead the party to sweep a large number of seats. The ruling SP is likely to get 17 per cent of votes.

Even the main opposition BSP is expected to get just 17 per cent of votes. The Congress may garner 16 per cent, the AAP 5 per cent and others 7 per cent votes in the state.

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The previous BSP government of Mayawati is now rated much better than the present Akhilesh Yadav government. It is also viewed more favourably by the OBCs and Muslims compared to six months ago. Overall 42 per cent respondents feel that the BSP government was better. It includes 39 per cent OBCs and 32 per cent Muslims, traditionally the backers of the SP.

Two thirds of the respondents have heard about Muzaffarnagar riots. The awareness is very high in Western UP and the lowest in Eastern UP. Muzaffarnagar is in Western UP.

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Overall 64 per cent have heard about the communal riots which claimed many lives. Most Muslims are dissatisfied with the response of both the state and central governments on Muzaffarnagar riots. While 45 per cent blame the SP for the riots, 13 per cent blame the BJP for the riots.

Congress voters are equally supportive of a possible alliance with both SP and BSP. However, more SP supporters favour an alliance with the Congress than the BSP voters.

SP government unpopular

The dissatisfaction level with the ruling SP has risen in the last six months and 41 per cent respondents are unhappy with it. However, 50 per cent respondents claim that they are happy with CM Akhilesh Yadav and 40 per cent say they are not happy with him.

Six out of 10 voters are against re-electing the SP government if Assembly elections are held in January 2014.

The UPA at the Centre is also very unpopular in UP. Over 44 per cent people say they are unhappy with it. Dissatisfaction with Manmohan Singh's performance as the PM has also risen in the last six months in UP.

Modi leads pm race in UP

BJP's Narendra Modi is the most preferred choice of the voters for the post of PM in UP. He has the backing of 35 per cent voters as against just 12 per cent for Rahul Gandhi.

Mayawati has 11 per cent and Mulayam Singh Yadav has got 10 per cent support in the state for the PM post. AAP's Arvind Kejriwal has got 4 per cent support.

Narendra Modi is most popular in Eastern UP and Doab regions and least popular in Western UP closer to Delhi. In Western UP, he has got just 24 per cent backing. In Eastern UP, Modi has got 41 per cent backing.

Modi is hugely popular among upper castes and some OBCs. A total of 60 per cent Brahmins, 59 per cent Jats, 52 per cent Rajputs, 49 per cent Kurmi-Koeris, 35 per cent Yadavs, 25 per cent SCs and 11 per cent Muslims back Modi for the PM post.

AAP impact

Out of those surveyed, 65 per cent respondents have heard of the AAP. Among them 42 per cent want the AAP to contest from their Lok Sabha seat but only 25 per cent want to vote for it.