Apr 03, 2014 at 10:29pm IST

UP tracker: BJP may win 42-50 seats, SP 11-17, BSP 10-16, Cong-RLD 4-8

In Uttar Pradesh, the biggest state in terms of Lok Sabha seats, the BJP is all set to decimate its opponents with the Narendra Modi wave sweeping the state. The party is projected to get 42-50 Lok Sabha seats in the key battleground state according to CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS national election tracker and seat projections by Chennai Mathematical Institute Director Rajeeva Karandikar.

The ruling SP may get just 11-17 seats, the BSP is likely to get 10-16 seats, the Congress - RLD 4-seats and others 0-2 in UP.

According to survey findings, the BJP and Apna Dal alliance in UP is likely to get 36 per cent of the votes in the Lok Sabha elections. The ruling SP may get 22 per cent of the votes and the main opposition BSP may get 18 per cent of the votes. The Congress and RLD alliance may get 16 per cent votes.

The AAP is expected to get 3 per cent and others 5 per cent votes respectively.

Region-wise break-up.

The BJP is ahead in Western UP and it is benefitting from the divide votes of opposition. The BJP and the SP are in a neck and neck fight in Ruhelkhand. In Awad region, the BJP is leading and the Congress is in second position. In Doab region, the BJP is leading followed by the SP. In Bundelkhand, the SP and the BJP are engaged in a neck and neck fight. In Poorvanchal, the BJP is leading. SP and BSP are its main opponents in the region.

The BJP is leading in rural areas by a wide margin but the contest is narrowing in urban areas. In rural areas the BJP has got 38 per cent support and 30 per cent in urban areas.

Upper castes and Lower OBCs are with the BJP, Yadavs are with the SP, Jatavs are with the BSP and the Muslim vote is divided between the SP, BSP and the Congress.

Modi leads PM race

Narendra Modi has maintained his lead over all others. He has got 34 per cent support and Rahul Gandhi has got 12 per cent support. Mayawati has got 11 per cent and Mulayam Singh Yadav has 10 per cent support for the post of PM. Modi's popularity is also the highest in Eastern UP and Doab region with 38 per cent each backing him.

The public awareness about Muzaffarnagar riots has increased since January and 78 per cent claim that they are aware of it. Overall the majority blame the SP for the riot.

There is a high support for the Jat reservation decision of the UPA government among Jats, but not much support among the OBCs. The next satisfaction with the state government is +1 per cent and with the Centre is minus 2 per cent.

The strong anti-UPA mood continues in UP with 56 per cent opposing one more term for it.

Top 5 voting issues

Development - 20 per cent

Price rise - 17 per cent

Corruption - 17 per cent

Unemployment - 8 per cent

Condition of roads - 5 per cent