UPA may survive DMK pullout, unlikely to undertake reforms

New Delhi: Even as Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kamal Nath claimed that the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance Government was not lame duck after the DMK pulled out from the ruling coalition, it is becoming increasingly clear that while the government may survive, it may not be able to transact important legislative business in Parliament as parties extending outside support to it are not going to be easy to bring on board on every issue.

It is clear the while the government may not fall anytime soon, it has become a lame duck as it is way short of the half-way mark in the Lok Sabha and is depended on a host of parties including Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party and Mulayam Singh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party for survival, who have their own interest in keeping the UPA in power. The Lok Sabha elections may not take place before November-December as no political party wants early elections and the UPA may try to push in some important legislations.

Even the BJP does not wants early polls and is unlikely to support a no-confidence motion. The Trinamool Congress had tried to bring in a no-confidence motion after pulling out of the UPA, but the move backfired badly. Even the DMK may not like to burn the bridges with the Congress-led UPA and if a no-confidence motion is indeed brought in, then the party is most likely to abstain.

The Lok Sabha elections may not take place before November-December as no political party wants early elections.

The UPA has decided to move on without DMK as it has outside support which takes it over the half-way mark in the Lok Sabha comfortably. With the DMK out of equation a strong resolution on Sri Lank war crimes in Parliament is unlikely as there is no consensus on the issue. The Congress as well as the BJP don't want foreign policy to be dictated by a regional party.

Right now the government top priority is getting through the Budget Session priority and bringing in major reforms through the Cabinet and administrative route, and not through legislation. Congress President Sonia Gandhi claims that the government can pass Food Security Bill and similar legislations which are aimed at the poorer sections of society

But the gloves will be off after June-July and the government can go for Lok Sabha elections timed with state elections in the winter.

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