Uttarakhand: State of the Nation

New Delhi: One month before elections, when the race has just begun, it seems the ruling Congress has an edge over the BJP in Uttarakhand. Findings of the HT-CNN-IBN-CSDS survey indicates that if the Assembly elections were held in the second week of this month, the Congress was likely to get 34 per cent of the popular votes, while the BJP would have polled about 26 per cent votes.

During the 2002 Assembly elections, both these parties were neck-to-neck in terms of per cent votes polled. The survey does not indicate much support for the smaller parties, but it should be remembered that surveys tend to under-estimate smaller parties.

This is to some extent a reflection of the popularity of the incumbent state government.

The Congress government is popular among the traditional Congress voters, but it is important to note that majority of the traditional BJP supports also seemed satisfied with the performance of this government.

People view positively the work of the government with regard to the condition of roads, drinking water supply, school and college, electricity supply and other civic amenities. At the same time there is a question mark on the government when it comes to the issue of corruption during the Congress regime.

People give much of the credit for the positive work done by the government to Narayan Dutt Tiwari, the present Chief Minister. Voters cutting across party lines seemed satisfied with the developmental work done by him during the last five years.

Not surprisingly, he is also the most popular choice as the Chief Minister.

The two BJP leaders BC Khanduri and Bhagat Singh Koshiyari are the second and the third choice as the Chief Minster. Among the BJP supporters both of them seemed to be equally popular, while Nityanand Swami lags far behind in the popularity race.

What may have added to the popularity of the state government is people finding this government better compared to the previous BJP government. While the opinions of the traditional Congress and BJP supporters seemed to be divided on party lines, but those who are traditional supporters of neither BJP nor Congress, seemed somewhat dissatisfied with both the government. Such voters might vote for smaller parties in the forthcoming Assembly elections.

This happy story for the ruling party has a sting in its tail. When asked the crucial question as to whether this government should get another chance to rule, the people seemed divided.

While 42 per cent would like to give a second chance to this government, 44 per cent want this government to go.

Voters from different regions are divided on this issue. Those living in Garhwal regions seemed to be in favour of a second chance for the ruling Congress government, but people in Kumaun and Maidan hold a different opinion on this issue.

Such difference of opinions could become decisive when the voters turn to polling booth on February 21 to cast their vote. The Congress cannot take its success for granted.

Uttarakhand: Vote share of Parties
Party	Projected vote %
Congress	34
BJP	26
BSP	09
UKD	07
Others	24

Satisfaction with the performance of state government
	Satisfied %	Dissatisfied %
All	57	33
Traditional Congress supporters	86	7
Traditional BJP supporters	51	44
Others	43	43
Rest No Opinion

Positive appraisal of the performance of the state government
	Improved %	Deteriorated%
Condition of roads	56	16
Supply of electricity	54	12
Condition of School and college	53	14
Supply of Drinking water	44	13
Government Hospitals	35	18
Security of life and property	24	18
Control on corruption	22	16
Rest mentioned it had remained same or No Opinion

Satisfaction with the work of Chief Minster Narayan Dutt Tiwari
	Satisfied %	Dissatisfied %
All	64	21
Traditional Congress voters	90	4
Traditional BJP voters	54	31
Others	54	30
Rest No Opinion

Narayan Dutt Tiwari leads the race as the most popular choice for Chief Minister
Names	Figures %
Narayan Dutt Tiwari	22
B.C Khanduri	14
Bhagat Singh Koshiyari	11
Satpal Maharaj	11
Harish Rawat	6
Kashi Singh Aeri	6
Rest Others leaders and some did not mention any name

Comparison between Congress leaders
	Narayan Dutt Tiwari %	Harish Rawat %	Indira Hridaesh %
All	51	23	9
Traditional Congress voters	63	16	9
Traditional BJP voters	46	24	11
Others	46	27	7

Comparison between BJP leaders
	B.C Khanduri %	Bhagat Singh Koshiyari %	Nityanand Swami %
All	35	32	16
Traditional Congress voters	32	38	14
Traditional BJP voters	40	39	10
Others	34	24	20

Comparison between the present Congress and the previous BJP government
	Congress better %	BJP better %	Both equally bad %
All	38	27	13
Traditional Congress supporters	79	4	1
Traditional BJP supporters	10	75	3
Others	25	15	26
Rest either did not reply or mentioned both to be equal