Click to play videoThe break-up between the Left and UPA is imminent and the likely result is obvious too. But is the Congress ready for early elections? An internal report submitted to Sonia Gandhi suggests that price rise – and not nuclear deal – is the issue likely to determine the party’s fortunes were the country to go for General Elections now.
CNN-IBN debated on its show Face the Nation if the Government should go for early elections in the times of double-digit inflation. To discuss the topic were Editor-in-chief, The Hindu, N Ram; Editor, India Today Group Prabhu Chawla and Editorial Advisor, The Times of India, Gautam Adhikari.
There is no hard evidence to show that price rise will be a determinant in the General elections. There are local issues, regional alliances, and anti-incumbencies but is price rise really that big a factor? Should the UPA fear elections in the backdrop of price rise?
Will inflation nuke Congress’ chances?
N Ram said the Congress was in a state of moral and political confusion and price rise was a grave issue. Ram also said Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was out of touch on the national mood. “It’s hard to reason why the Prime Minister – having accepted the virtual defeat of nuclear deal – is now in a Satyagraha mode. He says he won’t go to G-8, will create a spectacle because he won’t get the nuclear deal,” he said.
Ram said that attitude was not good for the Congress.
However, Gautam Adhikari did not seem to agree. He said the Government had nothing to lose as there’s not much difference between November, December and March. Therefore, he said, Manmohan Singh should go to the IAEA and sacrifice the Government for a historic deal. “It’s a deal in a lifetime for India, a pariah in the nuclear field. This is one way of not signing the Non-Proliferation Treaty and yet be part of the nuclear weapons power and access technology,” he said.
Adhikari agreed with Manmohan Singh reluctance to stick on to power by keeping alive a comatose Government. He also took a dig at Prakash Karat and said the Left leader was not an elected representative and the last election he won was perhaps at the JNU.
But the critics of the Government have another take. They say the Government has simply failed to function and it should go to the highest court of people – elections. Prabhu Chawla agreed with the logic and said PM should seek a fresh mandate. “It is Sonia Gandhi who’s taking the calls since she is the President of the party which rules the country. PM does not want to be a nuclear Nero who will play the violin while the N-deal is burning. But nuclear deal will not get votes for Congress. Inflation is an issue. Congress will not get votes on the basis of performance – as there’s no performance to show. It will get votes based on issues like price rise,” he said.
Deal managers vs deal makers: Who failed Manmohan?
Chawla took a rather critical view and said he could not recall even one incident in the past four-and-an-half-years that could be described as an achievement. “He could have gone ahead and done the deal. But that’s the difference between deal makers and deal managers. Deal managers have failed him. The parties couldn’t mobilise the political system. They are trying to change the deal for the past year,” he said.
What if Manmohan Singh goes to the IAEA, will he get a certain moral authority of popularity if he does that? “The majority in Parliament is opposed to the deal. The SP has so far expressed disapproval. If he goes to the IAEA, it’s not going to go any further. There will be no government to go behind it,” he said.
Manmohan Singh is also facing the heat for not being a politician but a technocrat. Is the nuclear deal controversy a case of mistiming in the time of inflation? Adhikari did not agree. He said even if nuclear deal were to go through, it wouldn’t impact the inflation figures. Inflation and nuclear deal, he said, were not related. “Where’s the link? Inflation is because of a number of reasons, including global factors. The most important is the oil prices. So what’s the guarantee that if you wait till April for the normal elections, inflation will have gone down?” he asked.
The Prime Minister is guilty of political mismanagement and Chawla agreed with it. He said Manmohan Singh should have stuck to a stand he had taken. “It’s a bog slap on his face that he will go out of office to without getting a deal implemented. It’s an insult for the country and not PM,” he said, adding the country will vote for him if he took a stand.
Ram said the question was irrelevant because Manmohan Singh did not even have a constituency for himself. “No one is suggesting India went to polls due to this deal. The deal is dead and cannot go forward. We’ll have to wait for a new administration in India and US,” he said.
Polls now: A political kamikaze?
However, Adhikari said that to say that the deal was dead was exaggeration as there was no clarity on the situation yet. He said PM should take it forward if he believes in it. Agreeing with Chawla, Adhikari said it was up to Sonia Gandhi to work out a compromise formula and deal with players like the Samajwadi Party. “It’s a very normal political procedure that they are undergoing,” he said, adding the deal was alive.
Adhikari also said that France, Russia and Germany have said they will stand by India in the NSG and that’s important.
In politics, never say never - was the gist of Adhikari’s argument.
But the loss of NDA in the General Elections showed that issues like price rise and nuclear issue weren’t the determining factors. Will, then, the BJP gain from the situation at all?
“They are enjoying the infighting in the ruling alliance. They at least have a Prime Ministerial candidate; Congress does not even have that. Just that they went to polls with a wrong agenda – India Shining was meant for the upper class,” Chawla said, adding, importantly, that India votes for promises not performance.
The debate seemed to be concluding on a common note – at least between Adhikari and Chawla: Manmohan Singh needed to lead not be led. He needs to stand up to his decision on N-deal and leave the rest to the people of the country to decide. Even if it meant a grand act of political kamikaze.
However, Ram said there was no question of a “sacrifice”. “They are desperate and have nothing to sacrifice. Going ahead with N-deal won’t make a difference to anything,” he said.
Should the government go for early elections in the times of double-digit inflation?
Yes: 65 per cent
No: 35 per cent
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