Vote India: Will inflation nuke Cong's chances?

IN POLL MODE: With the deadlock over nuclear deal continuing, parties are getting ready for Lok Sabha elections.

      

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The break-up between the Left and UPA is imminent and the likely result is obvious too. But is the Congress ready for early elections? An internal report submitted to Sonia Gandhi suggests that price rise – and not nuclear deal – is the issue likely to determine the party’s fortunes were the country to go for General Elections now.

CNN-IBN debated on its show Face the Nation if the Government should go for early elections in the times of double-digit inflation. To discuss the topic were Editor-in-chief, The Hindu, N Ram; Editor, India Today Group Prabhu Chawla and Editorial Advisor, The Times of India, Gautam Adhikari.

There is no hard evidence to show that price rise will be a determinant in the General elections. There are local issues, regional alliances, and anti-incumbencies but is price rise really that big a factor? Should the UPA fear elections in the backdrop of price rise?

Will inflation nuke Congress’ chances?

N Ram said the Congress was in a state of moral and political confusion and price rise was a grave issue. Ram also said Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was out of touch on the national mood. “It’s hard to reason why the Prime Minister – having accepted the virtual defeat of nuclear deal – is now in a Satyagraha mode. He says he won’t go to G-8, will create a spectacle because he won’t get the nuclear deal,” he said.

Ram said that attitude was not good for the Congress.

However, Gautam Adhikari did not seem to agree. He said the Government had nothing to lose as there’s not much difference between November, December and March. Therefore, he said, Manmohan Singh should go to the IAEA and sacrifice the Government for a historic deal. “It’s a deal in a lifetime for India, a pariah in the nuclear field. This is one way of not signing the Non-Proliferation Treaty and yet be part of the nuclear weapons power and access technology,” he said.

Adhikari agreed with Manmohan Singh reluctance to stick on to power by keeping alive a comatose Government. He also took a dig at Prakash Karat and said the Left leader was not an elected representative and the last election he won was perhaps at the JNU.

But the critics of the Government have another take. They say the Government has simply failed to function and it should go to the highest court of people – elections. Prabhu Chawla agreed with the logic and said PM should seek a fresh mandate. “It is Sonia Gandhi who’s taking the calls since she is the President of the party which rules the country. PM does not want to be a nuclear Nero who will play the violin while the N-deal is burning. But nuclear deal will not get votes for Congress. Inflation is an issue. Congress will not get votes on the basis of performance – as there’s no performance to show. It will get votes based on issues like price rise,” he said.

Deal managers vs deal makers: Who failed Manmohan?

Chawla took a rather critical view and said he could not recall even one incident in the past four-and-an-half-years that could be described as an achievement. “He could have gone ahead and done the deal. But that’s the difference between deal makers and deal managers. Deal managers have failed him. The parties couldn’t mobilise the political system. They are trying to change the deal for the past year,” he said.