New Delhi: West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) is clearly ahead of all other political parties in the state. She is expected to continue her victory march in the Lok Sabha elections too according to the Lokniti-IBN national election tracker.
In the state with 42 Lok Sabha seats, Mamata Banerjee's party is likely to improve its strength by winning 20-28 seats if Lok Sabha elections are held in January 2014, according to the seat projections provided by Chennai Mathematical Institute's Director Prof Rajeeva Karandikar. The Communist Party of India-Marxist-led Left Front is staring at a bleak future and is projected to win just 7-13 seats in what was its impregnable fort just a few years back.
The Congress is expected to win 5-9 seats and the BJP may get 0-2 seats. In the 2009 elections, the TMC won 19 Lok Sabha seats. It was the second largest alliance partner of the UPA-2 at the Centre.
Mamata Banerjee continues to hold the sway over the electorate with the TMC projected to get 33 per cent votes. In 2009, the TMC polled 31 votes. The Left Front is expected to garner 25 per cent votes against 43 in 2009.
The Congress is expected to gain 5 per cent more votes this time. In 2009, the Congress got 14 per cent votes. The BJP's vote is expected to touch 14 per cent from just 6 per cent in 2009. The AAP is likely to garner a mere 2 per cent votes and the others are likely to get 7 per cent votes.
While the main opposition - the Left Front - is likely to lose its vote share by a huge 18 per cent when compared to 2009, the Congress and the BJP are showing signs of improvement. The Congress is likely to get 19 per cent and the BJP is likely to get 14 per cent votes this time.
The popularity of the TMC is rising in the state. The government is viewed even more favourably compared to the previous Left Front government, particularly among the Muslims, who are a huge votebank in the state. Overall, 39 per cent people favour the TMC government. In rural Bengal, the TMC has got 40 per cent support and the Left has got just 28 per cent support. In urban Bengal, both TMC and Left have got 36 per cent each. A massive 54 per cent Muslims are backing the TMC government when compared to just 29 per cent support the Left has got among them.
Interestingly, the Congress voters are most open to an alliance with the TMC. Left voters are most open to a tie-up with Congress while BJP voters are most open to an alliance with TMC, and the TMC voters are open to an alliance with both Congress and BJP.
The satisfaction with the TMC is also 55 per cent and is actually growing. Six out of 10 respondents are satisfied with the administration of Mamata Banerjee. Interestingly, the anti-TMC government feelings have also seem to have decreased in the state in the last 6 months.
Over 39 per cent voters are dissatisfied with the UPA government at the Centre, 38 per cent voters say they are not happy with the performance of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
West Bengal has also shifted from being pro-UPA six months ago to anti-UPA now.
Modi leads PM race
Like most other states, even in West Bengal, Narendra Modi leads the PM race. He has got 18 per cent voters backing for the PM post as against 11 per cent for the Mamata Banerjee. Rahul Gandhi has got 9 per cent support.
AAP impact in West Bengal
One-third of West Bengal voters have heard of the AAP. But less than 20 per cent of them want the AAP to contest in the Lok Sabha elections from their seat and only 10 per cent say, they will vote for the AAP.
The sample size for West Bengal is 1264.What is this election year going to look like? Newsroom buzz with Bhupendra Chaubey