Click to play videoFour phases of polling for the 15th Lok Sabha elections are over and there is only more to go, but the post poll games have already begun with both the Congress and the BJP trying to woo potential allies. With just a week to go before counting, the big questions are: Which party will emerge as the single largest party? Which party will form the next government? Who will be the next prime minister?
To try and answer the questions on the panel of experts for CNN-IBN's Battle For India were Samajwadi Party candidate from Lucknow, Nafisa Ali; Congress party member and minister in the Haryana government, Randeep Singh Surjewala; Convenor with the BJP's media cell, Nalin Kohli; CPM member and former advisor to Prakash Karat as well as the Vice-President, Prabir Purkayastha; and Editor Thuglak Cho Ramaswamy.
UPA'S ROUTE TO POWER
SCENARIO ONE: The UPA gets 200-210 seats, NDA gets around 180 to 190. The UPA then gets the support of Lalu Prasad, Ram Vilas Paswan and Mulayam Singh Yadav with about 30 seats. Jayalalithaa with 30 seats and Naveen Patnaik with 10 seats switch sides and Manmohan Singh becomes the Prime Minister.
SCENARIO TWO: The UPA's other route to power is if it gets 200 seats. Nitish Kumar with 25 seats and Jayalalithaa with 30 seats switch sides. Smaller parties like Biju Janata Dal also switch sides and Manmohan Singh becomes the Prime Minister.
SCENARIO THREE: UPA gets 225 seats and gets the support of Lalu Prasad and Mulayam Singh Yadav with about 30 seats. Smaller parties come on board and Manmohan Singh becomes the Prime Minister.
Many observers think that all these scenarios are all wishful thinking and that the chances of Manmohan Singh are diminishing from day-to-day. However, Surjewala disagreed saying that the Congress on its own would touch about 200 seats. "I think we will be about 230 or somewhere in that proximity. With allies, like-minded parties and maybe even the Left, we shall be able to form the Government and Dr Manmohan Singh shall become the Prime Minister."
Nalin Kohli did not concur saying that there were many things which had to be taken into account before projecting a sure win. "Is it really the UPA which is going into the elections? It seems to have splintered with the Fourth Front being formed out of the UPA. The Left - which was a very important ally - is no longer with them. Also, they need to think of the demands which some of these potential allies are putting forth to them, for example the Samajwadi Party asking for Mayawati to be dismissed in exchange for their support. That is an extremely undemocratic demand to make," he stated.
Nafisa Ali responded to this saying, "Mulayam Singh asked for Mayawati to be dismissed keeping in mind the stress which Uttar Pradesh is going through under her rule. He does not want her to be dismissed immediately. But we have to ensure that she has to be removed for the sake of the state."
Sujrewala said that the art lay in persuading allies to walk alongside you, and to strike a middle path. "Mulayam Singh's demand is about a political battle which has to be fought and not a Constitutional battle. She has to perish politically."
Kohli shot back saying, "Dismiss simply means what we have known as Article 356 over all these years. Secondly, coming back to the debate, Dr Manmohan Singh cannot form the government without the support of the Left, Lalu Prasad and Sharad Yadav. Manmohan Singh is just the prime ministerial candidate of the Congress party. The post is open for all, however. Thirdly, is the question whether the UPA - which is a non-existent alliance in the first place - will ever reach 200 plus seats. The NDA certainly thinks not."
THE ALLIANCE GAME
The Congress is hoping that BJD will join hands with it in Orissa, and that the AIADMK will swing its way in Tamil Nadu even though the DMK has been its ally in the state. Is the Congress willing to make these re-alignments in order to form the government at the Centre?
Sujrewala stated that the Congress was willing to walk that extra mile to ensure that the country gets a stable and secular government. "We fight the Left in Kerala and West Bengal, still we came together for the national interest on the Common Minimum Programme. We fought the DMK in the state but we still came together on a national platform," he said.
Kohli responded sarcastically saying, "It is an interesting scenario that the Congress is talking about dumping allies which have been supporting it in power for the last nearly five years. They dumped the Left, now they are talking about dumping the Left because AIADMK is sure to get more seats. So this 'walk the extra mile' is just a euphemism for 'we want to come to power by hooko or by crook'. It is not talking about what the result is going to be which will be blatantly anti-Congress."
Sujrewala retored saying that Nalin Kohli should be the last one to talk about allies. "The way BJP had dumped allies and allies had dumped BJP is something we should not even get into," Sujrewala said.
There was a possible fourth scenario, however, through which Congress come to power.
SCENARIO FOUR: UPA gets 180-190 seats and gets the support of Lalu Prasad and Mulayam Singh with about 30 seats. The Left with 40 seats provides outside support, but the Prime Minister in this case is a Congressman like Pranab Mukherjee or A K Antony, or even possibly Rahul Gandhi.
Prabir Purkayastha joined the debate at this point saying, "The issue with the Left is not who is going to prime minister. The issue is what are the policies which are going to be pursued. The constituents which form the next government have to together decide who their leader is. It's not just about the Left. Others also have to find Manmohan Singh acceptable. If tomorrow the BJP says that Narendra Modi should be the next prime minister, their allies may not be comfortable with it. The issue is not about the prime minister. The question is who is going to form the next government."
He said that right now, it was not about the Left but about the Third Front. "The Third Front could support the UPA or the UPA could support the Third Front. These are two possibilities. It is not a given that we would support a Congress-led government. In fact, we would want them to support a Third Front-led government."
Sujrewala agreed saying that it was absolutely fair. "Ultimately everything will depend on numbers, who can persuade whom and what kind of an agenda can they work out together."
RACE FOR THE TOP JOB
Four weeks ago, it was clear that Manmohan Singh would get the top job, now it is not so apparent. Cho Ramaswamy said, however, that he did not think the situation had dramatically changed at all.
"I don't agree with the epostulation that the UPA is capable of getting 200 and more seats or even 180 for that matter. I don't see the Congress faring well in any state except Kerala and perhaps to some extent Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh. It is going to be very difficult for the Congress to perform so well."
Kohli interjected saying, "I think the only front which has a clear prime ministerial candidate is the NDA with L K Advani. Manmohan Singh is acceptable only to the Congress and not even to its own allies. Even the Samajwadi Party does not want his as prime minister."
Nafisa Ali interrupted saying, " The Samajwadi Party has said that when we win with the UPA, all of us can sit together and decide who shall take the top job."
"If there are two fronts which have roughly equal numbers, it does not automatically mean that Congress is the one which will be getting support. The Congress in the position of leadership all the time is certainly not acceptable to anybody," Purkayastha stated.
Sujrewala tried to do some damage control saying that the issue was not about who will be prime minister but whether we will be able to give the country a secular and stable government. "It is a post poll scenario which is important here. Congress is a big party and we hope to emerge as the single-largest party. However, post polls we will sit with our allies and see who can be prime minister. We will try and persuade parties to join us, try and set up a common, secular agenda. All of us stand united in one thought that we don't want to hand this country over to people who will destroy its basic secular fabric."
Purkayastha and Nafisa Ali said that they were ready to support each other to keep out a BJP-led government at the Centre. Sujrewala however, stuck to his stand saying that the Congress would be able to "persuade the Left once the numbers were out".
NDA'S ROUTE TO POWER
SCENARIO ONE: NDA gets 200 seats. Mayawati and Jayalalithaa with 35 seats each support it. L K Advani becomes Prime Minister
SCENARIO TWO: NDA gets 180-190 seats. Mayawati and Jayalalithaa with 35 seats each support it. Old allies like Mamata Banerjee, Chandrababu Naidu and Naveen Patnaik return. L K Advani becomes Prime Minister.
If Mulayam Singh is placing certain demands on the UPA, then Jayalalithaa and Mayawati will also place considerable demands on the NDA. Jayalalithaa may even ask the NDA to dismiss Karunanidhi's government. How would the NDA cope then?
Kohli answered the question saying, "The key is the anti-Congress sentiment in the nation. Then you come to the key states like the Uttar Pradesh where Maywati and Samajwadi Party would be on either side of whatever the numbers are. How well the BJP performs in battleground states is very important in our forming the government in the country. Then there are Andhra Pradesh and the alliance Maharashtra and we have to see how well or badly the Congress does there. Then there are critical, see-saw states like West Bengal where the Left and Trinamool Congress cannot be on the same side. The same applies to Tamil Nadu - you cannot have the DMK and the AIADMK on the same side. Then there are lock-in states like Andhra Pradesh - where there is the issue of the Telengana, which the Congress has a serious problem with. The second lock-in state is Orissa where the Biju Janata Dal will not form a government in the state with the Congress party."
The BJP's geographical limitations - as they are not there in certain states - makes it easier for them to get allies. "The NDA is better equipped to be the nucleus of the anti-Congress vote," Kohli added.
Sujrewala retored saying, "The BJP ran out of possibilities a long time ago."
Kohli shot back saying that it was not like the BJP was desperate because it had not been in the government for the last five years, but it was about respecting which way the verdict would swing. "The Left is also talking about a Third Front government which would be supported by the Congress. All this is about moving in an anti-Congress mode," he stated.
WILL JAYALALITHAA GO WITH THE NDA?
The point is that the NDA cannot form the government at the Centre without the support of AIADMK and Jayalalithaa. The big question now is which way would she go.
To this Cho Ramaswamy said, "If the Congress performs well and promises to withdraw support from the DMK, then Jayalalithaa will go with the Congress. Otherwise she would prefer supporting a BJP-led government."
The chemistry of Jayalalithaa is with the BJP and the NDA but the arithmetic sits better with the Congress. Congress can really give her what she wants which is Karunanidhi's head and his chair.
"If both Congress and BJP get the same number of seats, then Jayalalithaa will prefer to go with the BJP," Ramaswamy said.
Sujrewala felt that it was the single-largest party which should be invited to form the government and not the front as a whole. However, Nalin Kholi said that NDA is a pre-poll alliance and the only one at that. "We would expect that the whole alliance gets called to form the government." (Next page: Third Front's route to power)
THIRD FRONT'S ROUTE TO POWER?
It will be possible if the Third Front gets about 120 seats, Congress and BJP both get 150 seats each and then one of them supports a Third Front candidate. Mayawati or a Left leader will become the prime minister.
"I would say there is no Left prime ministerial candidate. They haven't put their hat in the ring. A non-Congress government and that doesn't mean a Third Front government with the Congress supporting from outside is possible," said Purkayastha.
Nafisa backed NCP chief Sharad Pawar becoming the prime minister in such a scenario.
Purkayastha disagreed saying, "Sharad Pawar won't be acceptable to the Congress. They (Third Front) have been projecting themselves as a collective but have not projected a prime ministerial candidate. We will be open to joining a government."
Surjewala was a little cautious in his views but said that Congress will play a role in the next government.
"Depending on the numbers, we would want that the country gets a stable, secular government. Congress will play a role in ensuring that. We will cross the bridge when we get there but we will do it," said Surjewala.
When Kohli was asked if the BJP would be willing to support Mayawati as the prime minister, he ruled it out saying, "First of all in any formation you can rule out the BJP supporting the Left or the Left supporting the BJP. Second one thing is clear that LK Advani is the prime ministerial candidate of the BJP-NDA."
So can the 1989 scenario when the BJP and Left supported a third player repeat itself?
"I don't think so. The NDA will emerge as the largest alliance," claimed Kohli.
In another scenario both UPA and NDA may end up with less than 200 seats. Then Third and Fourth Front parties will come together and take support from either Congress or BJP. Sharad Pawar or Nitish Kumar could become the prime minister in such a situation.
"Sharad Pawar will be acceptable to secular parties," Nafisa once again said while Purkayastha simply added that he does not have a preference for any prime ministerial candidate.
Ramaswamy was more forthright in his views and said that the Third Front would soon come apart.
"I see the Third Front as a road side eatery where people gather, have some refreshments and then go their own way. It is not a place where people stay for a sufficient length of time. No Third Front party is going to agree on a particular candidate. If the situation develops to such an extent then a two-month wonder called the Third Front government could come about with Congress' support. If BJP has to support some one from Third Front it could be Jayalalithaa because her party agrees on most issues with the BJP," said Ramaswamy.
Surjewala, too, pointed out that Third Front government have proved to be unstable in the past.
"I agree with Ramaswamy. Third Fronts inherently provide unstable government and ultimately it leads to loss for everybody. I don't think a third Front government can be cobbled together. It has to be one of the two major national parties," he added.
However, Purkayastha blamed that Congress for the fall of Third Front governments.
"Both the time the Third Front government fell... it was pulled down by the Congress. We are having this kind of scenario for the last 10 years and we have had stable government inspite of that," said the Left leader.
WHO CAN PROVIDE A STABLE GOVERNMENT?
"I think the Congress will be the largest party and Samajwadi Party will win most seats in UP. So Congress must stop talking about every one jumping on to the bandwagon and needs to talk about responsible governments," said Nafisa.
"Elections are about issues and we still have a round to go. Elections are also about clarity. In the entire scenario there is just one alliance and that is the NDA which is about clarity. There won't be a vacuum but you can't expect everybody to be on the same side of the fence because there are regional issues that pull parties in different directions," said Kohli.
Purkayastha said that both Congress and BJP will need outside support if the wished to form the next government.
"One-hundred and fifty (150 seats as projected for both Congress and BJP) still needs 125 more for majority which means it will have to be a coalition. Congress and BJP at the most can be first among equals and will certainly be not anything more than that," he said.
Kohli pointed out that India has seen many successful coalition governments.
"The politics of last 30 years shows 21 years have belonged to coalition governments. Only the government of Mrs Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi were single party governments," said Kohli.
WHO WILL BE INDIA'S NEXT PRIME MINISTER? (Poll of 30 editors by CNN-IBN)
Manmohan Singh: 18
L K Advani: 6
Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee: 1
Can't say: 5
"I would say Advani would be the prime minister. I feel BJP will emerge as the largest single party. Congress will do better in Kerala, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh whereas BJP will do better in Karnataka, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, parts of Rajasthan and in Bihar along with the JD(U)," said Ramaswamy.
Kohli claimed that the mood in the country was anti-Congress.
"We cobbled together 272, we worked together for five years. I do sincerely feel we will be able to work it well again because this country needs a stable and lasting government," said Surjewala.
Purkayastha added, "For the first time the two major political parties put together will go below 272 and that is a very major landmark in Indian politics."
When asked how would the NDA come up with a Common Minimum Programme if support of Mayawati, TDP, BJD is required, Kohli said, "From 1998 there were two NDA governments for six years and there was a Common Minimum Programme. The UPA also had a Common Minimum Programme. The difference is Congress has learnt to be in coalition politics after propping up governments and dealing with parties which withdraw support."
Surjewala concluded by saying, "Indian voters give a clear mandate and we should wait. Our party is going to cross the 200 mark and we will be able to persuade people."
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