Click to play videoThe Congress appears to be leading the race to form the next government in Karnataka having managed an early edge ahead of the three-round polling for the state Assembly elections, an exclusive CNN-IBN-Deccan Herald opinion poll conducted by CSDS has suggested.
The poll finds the current mood of the Karnataka electorate favours Congress with the party expected to win 114 seats in the 224-seat Assembly, giving it a slender, but a clear majority. This means a gain of 49 seats for the Congress over the last elections held in 2004.
Karnataka voters were also asked who was there preferred chief ministerial candidate. The poll also tracked which way was the wind blowing in urban and rural Karnataka and across the six regions of the state. The issue of spiraling prices and will it affect the Congress's chances was also raised.
To discuss the findings of the poll CNN-IBN Editor-in-Chief Rajdeep Sardesai was joined by Yogendra Yadav, Political Analyst, CSDS; Diptosh Majumdar, CNN-IBN National Affairs Editor and Rajeeva L Karandikar, Executive Vice-President, Cranes Software.
Congress leader SM Krishna, Bharatiya Janata Party MP Ananth Kumar and MC Nanaiah of the Janata Dal (Secular) also joined the debate.
Yogendra Yadav set the ball rolling by clarifying that the opinion poll was a fairly comprehensive one.
"For a pre-election survey it is a very comprehensive one. It was conducted in 75 constituencies, which is every third constituency of the newly drawn boundaries. We have gone to 300 villages and urban centers and interviewed more than 5000 people. This is fairly comprehensive and completely representative of Karnataka," Yogendra claimed.
Diptosh Majumdar said the Karnataka elections would be fairly significant in the national context.
"The main poll issues being raised by the Opposition are terror and price rise. BJP is raising these issue and we will soon know if these will have bearing on the other elections that are coming up or not," Diptosh said.
Even though the Congress was projected as having a big lead over its rivals but the BJP the findings that its leader BS Yediyurappa was the most preferred chief ministerial candidate came as a shot in the arm.
"He is a very dear friend of mine and we have been working together for the last 20 years and the BJP has grown from strength to strength. From 2.6 per cent of vote share to 32 per cent of vote share in 2004 we became the leading party in Karnataka. I am happy that Yediyurappa is leading in the popularity race," Ananth Kumar said.
When SM Krishna was asked as to why is there no chief ministerial candidate from the Congress, he replied that his party has its own way of functioning.
"Congress has its own way of making a chief minister. We do not project any body and even in 1999 we did not project any body as a chief ministerial candidate. I am the chief campaigner for the party and there is a methodology as to how we go about selecting a chief minister. The Congress legislature party meets, it elects the leader in consultation with the Congress High Command and that has been the convention," Krishna said.
Diptosh pointed out the reason as to why Congress leaders were lagging behind in the chief ministerial race.
"Many Congress people who are from Karnataka are interfering from Delhi. That is the biggest problem for Krishna. People don’t know if Krishna is a chief ministerial candidate and so he may have got fewer votes," he said.
When the respondents were asked which government in the last eight years was the best according to them, 35 per cent went for HD Kumaraswamy's government of the JD (S). Twenty-four per cent said it was Krishna's government while only 14 per cent said that Dharam Singh's Congress government was the best.
Surprisingly only nine per cent of the respondents gave thumbs up to the Yediyurappa government.
Yogendra said, "I was surprised by this poll. Except on corruption and law & order everywhere the Karnataka voter said that during his (Kumaraswamy's) tenure things got better. Whatever the media may say, Kumaraswamy’s image was not too bad."
The BJP has also made the betrayal by the JD (S) the main poll plank. But when people were asked what they thought about the JD (S)'s withdrawal of support to the Yediyurappa government, 35 per cent of the respondents said it was justified. Another 35 per cent said it was no justified while 30 per cent of the respondents had no opinion on the issue.
So is there a sympathy wave for the BJP over the JD (S)'s withdrawal of support.
While 24 per cent felt that the Yediyurappa government was denied a chance to govern, 23 per cent say it was not fit to govern.
For 14 per cent of the respondents, the issue is now irrelevant and 39 per cent don't know.
"The entire credit for those 20 months of coalition government goes to Yediyurappa’s pro-people and pro-reform budgets and the participation of BJP ministers. I think without that Kumaraswamy’s administration was nothing. He cannot be given any credit. Yediyurappa in his two budgets reduced the interest rates on farm loans to four per cent according to Swaminathan report. He also waived loans of farmers, fishermen and weavers," Ananth Kumar boasted.
JD (S) MC Nanaiah had a different take on the issue.
"As far as Karnataka voters are concerned by and large there has been a total acceptability of Kumaraswamy as the chief minister. Deve Gowda has taken the party to great heights. Whatever Kumaraswamy does, he takes the blessings of Deve Gowda. Kumaraswamy has done very good in his 20 months as chief minister," Nanaiah said.
Diptosh said, "The saying in Karnataka is ‘God proposes and Gowda disposes’. Last election was about that. If Deve Gowda is critical or not will depend on the number of seats he gets."
When it was pointed out that there seems to be is no sympathy wave in favour of BJP, Ananth Kumar responded by saying, "People feel that both Deve Gowda and Congress have betrayed Karnataka. In 2004 the mandate was for BJP-led coalition government. Later when both BJP and JD (S) came together in a generous way, we said that JD (S) should lead to keep the Congress away. For the first 20 months, they had the chief ministership and for the next 20 months they should have given it to Yediyurappa. They didn’t do that and betrayed us."
"I think the people of Karnataka will give a mandate to a single party. Having experienced the failure of two loosely knit coalition, they are fed up with the way these coalitions function. There is no sense of direction or purpose. My perception is the people will give the mandate to Congress for the next five years," Krishna hoped.
Diptosh said that the experiment of a coalition government has not been a very happy one for Karnataka.
"Karnataka has experienced a very bad patch for the last five years. At the Center the coalitions are better managed. We have had stable coalitions governments since 1998 at the Center. The scenario in Karnataka is a cloak and dagger scenario," he said.
So what is the most important issue for the people of Karnataka this time?>
Lack of basic amenities and infrastructure say 38 per cent whereas 21 per cent feel farmer's condition is the most important issue. For 11 per cent instability is the main issue and eight per cent of the respondents view corruption as the most important issue. About 10 per cent of the respondents saw other issues as the most important ones.
"Normally one can expect inflation to be big issue even in normal times competing with issues like development. The important thing for the BJP is that not only is inflation not a big issue but also the issue of stability is not becoming a big issue. People are not really exercised about what happened to BJP and so the sympathy is not there for the party," Yogendra said.
Ananth Kumar had a different view.
"No, I believe that when people vote then they will send a very strong signal to the UPA government and the Congress party that rising prices are an issue and food security is definitely an issue. Then all the pollsters will also realize how big is the price rise issue in this election and the Lok Sabha elections that are coming up," Ananth said.
In the upper caste bloc, it's split evenly between the Congress, JD (S) and the BJP. The Congress and JD(S) are doing well among Vokkaligas and the BJP doing well among Lingayats.
Among upper castes the BJP is ahead with 41 per cent support.
Among Vokkaligas, the JD(S) is ahead with 40 per cent support; Congress is next with 35 per cent.
Among Lingayats the BJP dominates with 51 per cent support.
In the lower caste bloc the Congress dominates with 54 per cent support. Congress leads among lower OBCs, Dalits, Adivasis and Muslims with 38 per cent of the OBCs with the Congress. Among the Dalits, 50 per cent are supporting the Congress and 44 per cent Adivasis are with the Congress. Among Muslims, Congress dominates with 65 per cent support
Yogendra explains how unlike north India, Congress has been able to hold on to its vote bank in Karnataka.
"Karnataka is no north India. Congress has much more depth and width in the state compared to north India. The OBCs, Dalits, Muslims and Adivasis rally around the Congress," Yogendra said.
Nanaiah points out that joining hands with the BJP was not in the interest of the JD (S).
"I think the relationship with the BJP was really bad and unethical and it was Deve Gowda who never wanted the relationship to continue. He wanted the BJP government to collapse and he did it. Any relationship with the BJP, I believe as far as the Muslim population is concerned, is not good. As far as Muslims and OBCs are concerned we have a beautiful track record. I think we must go back to 1983 when for the first time anon-congress government came into being in Karnataka and that was Janata Dal government headed by Ramakrishna Hegde. The record between 1983 and 89 and then again between 1994 and 99, when Deve Gowda became the chief minister and then the prime minister, those 10 years of Janata Dal rule caught the imagination of Karnataka voters," Nanaiah said.
Coming to the region-wise breakup, in Hyderabad Karnataka which consists of Bidar, Gulbarga, Raichur and Koppal, JD (S) has receded and Congress taken a big lead.
In Mumbai Karnataka with the districts of Bijapur, Bagalkot, Belgaum, Dharwad, Gadag and Haveri, BJP has expanded its lead over the Congress but in Central Karnataka with the districts of Bellary, Davangere, Chitradurga, Chikmaglur and Shimoga, Congress was ahead of the BJP in a triangular contest.
Coastal Karnataka that consists of Uttar Kannada, Udupi, Dakshin Kannada and Kodagu, Congress has overtaken the BJP in a two-horse race and Southern Karnataka which consists of Tumkur, Hassan, Mysore Mandya, Chamrajnagar, Kolar and Chikballapur there is a keen contest between the JD (S) and the Congress.
In Bangalore, Congress enjoys comfortable lead over BJP and JD (S).
"In the last Lok Sabha polls in 2004 both Bangalore South and North were won by the BJP. Congress lost everything. When SM Krishna was chief minister he had 150 seats and when he led the campaign in 2004, his party was reduced to 65. It became a Waterloo. Congress is receding everywhere and it is a gain for the BJP. I want to also remind Nanaiah that in 1983 the Janata Party got only about 65 seats and it was because of 18 BJP MLAs, Hegde could form the government," Ananth said.
Krishna rubbished the BJP leader’s analysis.
"Ananth Kumar is talking about yesterday. You and I are talking about tomorrow. In Bangalore and Mysore region the fight is between Congress and JD (S). Bjp does not figure there. BJP is confined to Mumbai Karnataka region and there is also there is a fight. In coastal regions Congress is going to do better that what it did in 2004 because of anti-incumbency," Krishna said.
Delimitation: How much of it could influence the polls?
"As far as vote share is concerned, there is not going to be any major change even as the number of urban constituencies has increased. In last Lok Sabha polls though Congress did not do well in urban areas abut in Assembly polls it did very well," Yogendra said.
Coming to the vote share projection, Congress is likely to get 39 per cent of the votes and the BJP would get about 28 per cent. The JD (S) will garner 20 per cent votes and others about 13 per cent.
For the Congress it's a positive swing of four per cent and the BJP is losing out with a negative swing of one per cent. JD (S) has a negative swing of one per cent and others have a negative swing of two per cent.
When translated into seats, Congress is likely to get 114 seats up 49 from last time. BJP likely to get 60 seats down 19 seats while JD (S) is projected to get 37 seats down 21 seats. Others will get 13 seats down nine seats
"The 11 per cent advantage of the Congress will translate to a clear majority though just marginally over the halfway mark. BJP will be a distant second. And JD (S) even far behind. This projection is if the polls were held right now and a gap of six weeks is still left. Indian voter is known to be fickle and the figures may change but it is unlikely to reverse," Rajeeva explained.
"I just want to remind what the pollsters had predicted for Bihar, Punjab and some other states. There they had to fall on their face," Ananth remarked.
"The question is on whose strength is the election being fought. Leadership is BJP’s strength. Both BJP and JD (S) may have fretted away their advantage and the Congress is gaining not because of what it has done," Yogendra said.
Despite being relegated to a distant third Nanaiah still kept up a brave face.
"Our preferred choice is Janata Dal (Secular). It will come on its own and Kumaraswamy will be the chief minister. In case of fractured mandate we would like to sit in the opposition and let the BJP or the Congress to form the government," he said.
Ananth Kumar hoped that the BJP would come to power on its own.
"I think this time the people of Karnataka are going to give a clear mandate for a pro-people government under the leadership of BS Yediyurappa. I think that is the writing on the wall," Ananth said.
But the last word on the opinion poll came from Yogendra.
"In Karnataka the Congress is still the natural party of governance. It is the default option and because of the recent chaos there is a slight return to the party of governance, which is what seems to be. Yes, things can change as six weeks is a long time but will it change so dramatically for the BJP to recover? It looks very, very difficult," he concluded.
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