Will the Govt fall if N-deal goes through?

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New Delhi: Is the Manmohan Singh Government going to survive the ‘nuclear crisis’? That’s a pertinent question looming large on a day when the Left has suggested that it’s not just barking around, but it could also bite.

“It is for the Congress leadership to decide on the matter which will have serious consequences on the government and the country,” CPIM leader Sitaram Yechury made the Left party’s stand clear while making this statement.

Faced with the Left's tough stand, the Congress top brass called a meeting on Saturday. Though the UPA maintains that a middle ground can be worked out, and that there is no immediate threat to the Government, the question remains, what will then happen to the Nuclear deal?

Is the Indo-US agreement going to crumble under the weight of domestic politics?

CNN-IBN’s Rajdeep Sardesai posed the question to BJP MP Arun Shourie, Congress MP and National Spokesperson Abhishek Manu Singhvi, CNN-IBN National Affairs Editor Diptosh Majumdar and National Secretary, CPI, D Raja.

Will the Government fall if the Nuke Deal goes through?

The CPI-M has asked the Government to “not make the nuclear deal operational” and if need be abandon it entirely. The Left has warned of “serious consequences” if its concerns are not addressed.

Beyond the rhetoric, the left is looking for a face-saving formula and in fact stopped just short of withdrawing support to the Government.

Pranab Mukherjee, External Affairs Minister is now going to negotiate with the Left in the days ahead. It’s now very straight. If the deal gets operational, the CPI-M will withdraw support and the Government will fall.

“We have asked the Government categorically not to proceed with operationalising this deal. If it goes against us, then the Left will have no other option but to oppose the Government’s move on the floor of the House and outside the Parliament,” said D Raja.

The Left has clearly said that UPA cannot go to the IAEA or to the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Effectively, the deal is either stalled, or the UPA loses its power at the Centre.

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“We are opposed to the content and the context of the Indo-US accord. Government cannot not go for any further negotiation with the IAEA. Because doing so, it will be making the deal operational. It also cannot negotiate with the Nuclear Suppliers Group,” said D Raja.

The Prime Minister on his part has made his stand clear too, that the Nuclear Deal is “non-negotiable.” Does that leaves any space now for the Congress to maneuver a way out?

“Occasional marital differences should not be treated as martial,” said Abhishek Manu Singhvi. The Congress spokesperson while trying to ward off speculations that the Left is going to withdraw support, said, “These kinds of differences are inevitable in a marriage. But there is no need to have the hasty talk of divorce.”

Singhvi said that the Congress “understands, appreciates and is fully cognizant of the various concerns of the Left.” And that whatever decision will be taken in this regard will be solely directed by national interest.

However, Singhvi refused to answer the obvious question. Is the Congress willing to sacrifice its Government at the Centre for the sake of Indo-US Nuclear deal?

“With any coalition, differences are inevitable. These will be sorted out,” he said.

Let the Government blunder, says BJP

BJP is now playing the role of a ringside spectator. On Friday L K Advani said in the Parliament, “let the government blunder, commit sins. BJP is enjoying the whole Left-UPA tussle.”

Arun Shourie said that the effectiveness of the UPA Government has been eroding and now its ability to govern is “really dented.”

“When a government starts using terms like ‘honeymoon is over’ ‘marriage is not over’ and that ‘the wedlock continues, but no sex’ …When a top governance starts talking in these terms, it’s effectiveness is clearly gone,” said Shourie.

CPI leader D Raja said, “As far as the stability of the government is concerned, it depends upon the performance of the UPA, its commitment to the Common Minimum Programme and how it addresses the concerns expressed by the Left.”

But wasn’t the nuclear agreement started by BJP itself? On January 13, 2004 Atal Bihari Vajpayee was quoted as saying, “In November 2001 Bush and I committed our countries to a strategic partnership in three specific areas—civil space programme, high technology trade and civilian nuclear activity.”

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“This is absolute rubbish,” said Arun Shourie. Abstaining from touching upon the party’s stand on the whole issue Shourie said that “what troubles BJP in this Nuclear agreement is the squeeze put on India’s Nuclear Weapon’s Programme.”

“Two-third of our reactors have already been put under safeguards. Post the agreement, all future reactors, 90-95 per cent of them will be on US safeguards.”

But does the deal not fulfill India’s energy needs? “Has anybody looked into the actual text as to what it means? The devil is in the details,” said Shourie.

He said that the Nuclear issue remains ambiguities on various aspects. The present negotiation, is “ruinous” for the country because it jeopardizes our atomic weapons programme.

Are we heading for a mid-term poll?

Sources suggest a mid-term poll may be on the cards early next year. Congress still claims that the Government will complete its term, but within political quarter, it emerges clear that the UPA-Left combine is reaching a point of no return.

There are some who believe that the Prime Minister himself could be prepared for a mid-term poll now. Congress however denies such possibilities. “There is no such pessimistic scenario,” said Singhvi.

“Despite the wishful thinking of hypocritical parties like the BJP, mid-term poll is not going to happen,” he added.

So is the UPA willing to call off the deal mid-way, even if it means stalling the negotiations that have already begun at the IAEA?

“We will find a mid-solution. BJP is doing nothing but fishing in troubles waters. Its stand is hypocritical and completely double faced. The BJP government was ready to sign the same agreement half as good as it is earlier,” said Singhvi.

Does this now puts BJP and Left on one side. “No,” said D Raja.

“Independent of what BJP does, this is the stand taken by the Left parties. When the NDA parties went for Pokhran 2 tests, we opposed strongly.”

Surprisingly, the Left had opposed Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s government decision to conduct nuclear tests. And now it is opposing the Congress’ move to put a restriction on nuclear tests.

“Its not so much about the nuclear deal. It is the total military picture that emerges allying US and India,” said D Raja.

Clearly it’s not the deal but the US ideology that’s perturbing the Left.

What will happen if Left withdraws support?

At the moment the UPA needs the Left support. On being asked whether the Left is considering withdrawing support to the UPA, D Raja said, “We have been warning the Government. Now it is for the UPA coalition to decide what they want to do.”

What happens if the Left withdraws support?

- United Progressive Alliance or the UPA has a total of 219 seats.

-The Left with its outside support of 59 members takes the UPA's figure to 278, that’s above the half way mark of 272.

- The opposition BJP-led NDA has 173 seats.

The rest of the parties like the Samajwadi Party, BSP and TDP have 89 seats.

Three seats are vacant.

So if the Left withdraws support to the government, UPA will be 53 short of the half-way mark and the Government will be reduced to a minority.

Can the Nuclear Deal be renegotiated?

When the Left says do not operationalise the 123 agreement, what does it mean?

At the International atomic energy agency negotiations which begin soon, Left wants India to negotiate the safeguards but without signing any agreement.

Agreement at the IAEA on safeguards the Left says, should be signed only after the 123 agreement is concluded, which is expected to be complete some time in December after being ratified by the US Congress.

The left also wants India to negotiate and address its concerns at the Nuclear Suppliers Group. The NSG comprises 45 countries.

The left says the NSG must make it clear that in the event of Washington terminating the Indo-US nuclear deal, India will be allowed to buy fuel from other nuclear nations, and will not have to return its nuclear fuel reserves.

The left wants a clarification from Washington that the US law is not binding on New Delhi in the event of the termination of the agreement.

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