Click to play videoNew Delhi: The political scenario in Pakistan appears to be beset by many a twist and turn.
Confusion, however, persists over who will be the next Prime Minister.
While the man whom many are calling the next Prime Minister, Asif Ali Zardari, talks of a new beginning, there was much speculation and doubt as the National Assembly convened on Monday.
The PPP's Makhdoom Amin Fahim has refused to quit the race while Asif Zardari emerged as the frontrunner.
For now, Zardari is giving away little on that score.
“I do not possess even a simple majority, so the prime minister will be a consensus candidate from all the political forces in Pakistan not the choice of PPP alone… It will be PPP plus Nawaz Sharif, ANP, Maulana Sahib and other independent friends who have joined us ...and then I will announce,” Zardari said.
But it's widely believed that if Zardari wants to become Prime Minister, there cannot be a better time than now. President Musharraf is weakened, the Army and its civilian backers stand discredited and civil society wants democracy to succeed in Pakistan and to that end, appears willing to give Zardari a chance.
However, it's also willing to give Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz another chance.
Meanwhile, others have jumped onto the democracy bandwagon, including Maulana Fazlur Rahman, who was until a while back chin-wagging with Musharraf.
The president's allies in Karachi – the MQM – is ready to join hands and sections of the king's party have formed a forward bloc, the first step towards leaving the sinking ship.
Foreign Relations Council’s South Asia Expert, Daniel Markey, said that this has created a “very unusual sort of unity scheme” and many wonder how well it would hold together.”
The implication is that if Zardari fails, there are others who could step in.
There can be no doubts about Nawaz Sharif's intentions on that score. He wants to get even with Musharraf and for that reason wants the judiciary restored pronto, although he also gives the impression of wanting to make up for past mistakes.
“The irony is that all these gentlemen preach democracy while practising none within their own parties. All have sons waiting to step into the father's shoes. None want to transform Pakistan's feudal structure with land reforms.
“Zardari talks of setting aside Kashmir while Sharif says he'll allow Indians to travel visa free to Pakistan. One would have thought they could have left it to Parliament to debate,” Markey commented.
As Pakistan enters a season of uncertainty, politicians could fail and the army could well return and the jihadis could make things a lot worse.
Most critical would be America and whether it would be prepared to overlook short-term priorities and give Pakistan's democracy a chance to work.
For its part, India can only wait, watch and keep fingers crossed.
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